Can Democrats take Back the Majority in the House of Delegates?
By: James Martin
Published On: 12/28/2007 2:33:31 PM
Assuming Albert Pollard wins the February Special Election- Democrats need to pick up six seats to win back the majority in the House of Delegates. I believe it's possible, but it will take some incredible candidate recruitment to pull it off (House recruitment over the last 2 cycles has been anemic to say the least). The First Tier races should be made exceptionally competitive with a solid Democrat at the top of the ticket, The Second Tier races will be tough but are winnable, and The Third Tier races will take an act of God (like a retirement) coupled with exceptional candidate recruitment.
First Tier: 2007 Performance-2005 Performance (% for Tim Kaine 2005)
Dave Albo: Unopposed-52% (56% Kaine)
Phil Hamilton: Unopposed-unopposed* (58% Tim Kaine)
Danny Marshall: 52%-unopposed (51% Kaine)
Tom Rust - 53%-unopposed (59% Kaine)
Second Tier: 2007 Performance-2005 Performance (% for Tim Kaine 2005)
Jeff Frederick: 59%-51%** (55% Kaine)
Tim Hugo: 57%-unopposed (52% Kaine)
Dave Nutter: 53%-62% (49% Kaine)
Third Tier: 2007 Performance-2005 Performance (% for Tim Kaine 2005)
Watkins Abbitt: 60%-unopposed (52% Kaine)
Rob Bell: Unopposed-62% (53% Kaine)
Bill Howell: 62%-unopposed (49% Kaine)
Scott Lingamfelter: 55%-unopposed (50% Kaine)
Manoli Loupassi: 54%-n.a. (54% Kaine)
Joe May: 60%-unopposed (53% Kaine)
Glenn Oder: Unopposed-unopposed (51% Kaine)
There are a couple major hurdles standing in the way of a Democratic Majority. For the first time since 2001, Democrats will have to defend a very large number of vulnerable incumbents (Bobby Mathieson, David Poisson, Paul Nichols, Chuck Caputo, Joe Bouchard, and Paula Miller) and will have to defend some potentially competitive open seats (Steve Shannon and Joe Johnson). So, its possible...but the House caucus has to be able to run better candidates (50% of the competitive districts above saw no candidate in one of the last two cycles).
*The caucus is convinced that he is unbeatable... and that kind of mindset may keep us from running a solid candidate in a favorable district.
**I dislike Delegate Frederick as much as the next guy, but his last showing was impressive.
Comments
I agree (afausser - 12/28/2007 3:31:02 PM)
It's possible--and I would love to prove Albo wrong with his "democrats will never take the house of delegates" quote--but it is going to take a lot of hard work in a year when a lot of time will be devoted to the governor's race.
The 84th (elevandoski - 12/28/2007 3:53:48 PM)
I for one would love to see Dems field a candidate in the 84th against Sal Iaquinto. The district is winnable with a little work and a great candidate.
Anemic? Not hardly (Kris Amundson - 12/28/2007 3:59:39 PM)
As someone with more than a passing interest in our fortunes over the next two years, I really have to take issue with some of what you've said. First, our recruiting has hardly been "anemic." Our Class of 2005 is widely regarded as the best in recent House history. This year, we did even better. We recruited the former Commander of the Norfolk Naval Station, a life long police officer, a local city councilman, a longtime community activist, and even the first Hispanic commander of a navy destroyer. Not bad.
In addition, we recruited MORE challengers (6 to 1) than the Republicans did.
That said, we do have a tough job ahead of us. We have to keep recruiting outstanding candidates. We have to raise money. We have to work hard. Still, I would point out that we are much closer, on a percentage basis, than the Senate was at this time.
Agreed, 2007 was an excellent recruiting class (Lowell - 12/28/2007 4:10:06 PM)
My major disappointment was that nobody took on Dave Albo. Besides that, I thought it went very well.
Agreed (Ben - 12/28/2007 4:17:56 PM)
But I would add, you, me, Kris, Brian, local party leaders like Scott Surovell and others all tried really hard on that route- so I don't count that as a strike against anyone.
It (leftofcenter - 12/28/2007 4:13:27 PM)
can be done BUT the DPVA has got to be ready to finance these races. What's happened in the past is when a brave soul decides to step up and run they end up having to be fundraisers instead of candidates and that slows the whole process down. Ads need to be run, fliers need to be mailed, regular folks fundraisers (not $5000 a plate) need to be held, travel expenses need to be paid to travel within the district they represent, research needs to be done on opponents et al. The national needs to drop in a few mil also.
AND, I know everyone will howl on this, but the dems have to quit being so damn nice and only run a "positive" campaign. The rethugs aren't "nice". They are dirty campaigners. Although we probably don't need to get way down in the mud with them, dems need to be tougher and not such cowards.
You are absolutely right on all your points... (Dianne - 12/29/2007 9:24:47 AM)
but sadly this isn't done, at least on the Democratic side. I can't tell you how many hard working Democrats I know have said the very words that you've put in your comment.
But none of that will happen until WE as a group start complaining as a group to the DPVA and national entities that we want them to spend money on our candidates and that finding good candidates and supporting them is what we insist on.
The grassroots are key to finding good candidates. (Randy Klear - 12/29/2007 10:58:59 AM)
Local organizations are closer to the local issues and to the people who are determined to address them. The local party committees, in particular, should be acting like scouts for a sports team, finding good candidates, letting them know what needs to be done, and presenting them to the state and national parties in such a way that they will get noticed. If we turn candidate recruiting into a top-down process, we're likely to end up with fewer good people, not more.
Agree 100% (elevandoski - 12/29/2007 11:43:27 AM)
and candidate recruitment is only as good as the local committee. The stronger they are, the greater the recruitment effort. Time to join and get involved with your local committee!
I misspoke... (Dianne - 12/31/2007 10:48:18 AM)
and you are right that the grassroots can best identify candidates...BUT....so can the DPVA if they are in intimate and frequent contact with the grassroots which I've not witnessed, compared to the other side.
And the DPVA is the source for money, as it now stands. And without that money, very few will be coming forward...
That brings up an interesting question: Do we know exactly what the DPVA is spending their (our) money on?
Wrong and too early (True Blue - 12/28/2007 4:14:51 PM)
I heartily agree with Del. Amundson: 2005 and 2007 were very good years.
Also, isn't it just a bit too early to be writing off the House in 2009. We may pick up a seat in the 99th soon in a special election. Then there is the impact of 2008: who knows how these races will turn out and how they will impact the momentum going into 2009?
A Democratic sweep in 2008 could give the Democratic Party tremendous momentum in 2009. Imagine the campaign rallies: Governor Kaine gets up and says a few words, then he introduces Senator Mark Warner. Senator Mark Warner gives a rousing speech and then introduces Senator Jim Webb. Senator Webb fires the crowd up even more and then introduces President Edwards/Clinton/Obama! If Democrats sweep 2008, we will be able to bring overwhelming firepower to 2009.
But to achieve that result we need to focus on 2008 and organize. Democrats need to be pushing for their own favorite in the primaries while simultaneously preparing to unite behind the eventual winner. Then we need to push on and win Virginia for Mark Warner and the Democratic Party. If we carry Virginia in 2008, then we can plan and hope to take back the House of Delegates in 2009.
But candidate recruitment for 2009 (elevandoski - 12/28/2007 4:22:25 PM)
starts now! I've heard it takes quite awhile to root up candidates.
Nutter eminately beatable (Matusleo - 12/28/2007 5:46:57 PM)
Dave Nutter is definitely beatable. The area around Blacksburg continues to trend blue as more and more people settle in the area. We liked to say that we were escaping NoVa, and I confess to being slightly proud of that! But we folks escaping NoVa are not leaving because NoVa is blue, in fact, we are spreading that Blue across the state!
While I have left the Blacksburg area, what I have heard form the area is that the trend only continues. As we can see, Nutter is going to continue to face erosion of support, and with somebody like Creigh Deeds at the top of the ticket (who has big support in Blacksburg, having represented the other half of it for a few months), there will be a good chance we can see increased Democratic turnout.
Some folks are boohooing Democrats poor performance in RoVa. Here's a district that they need to target to turn that around. The other half of Blacksburg has Jim Shuler(D) as its delegate, and there's no reason he cannot be joined by a fellow Democrat.
Matusleo
Ut Prosim