Iowa
Clinton: 29/31
Obama: 26/22
Edwards: 25/25
It's "tighter than a tick," as Dan Rather used to say, but Clinton seems to have the edge among "likely voters."
Huckabee: 37/36
Romney: 23/28
Thompson: 11/10
McCain: 11/8
Looks like a two-way race, with Mike Huckabee holding a modest lead over Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson and John McCain battle it out for third place.
New Hampshire
Obama: 32/32
Clinton: 30/30
Edwards: 18/20
Also "tighter than a tick, this time with Barack Obama holding a slight, inside-the-margin-of-error lead over Hillary Clinton. Will the Iowa winner get a big boost in NH? If Edwards wins Iowa, for instance, will that boost him into a possible win in NH? If Hillary wins Iowa, is the race all but over?
Romney: 34/34
McCain: 21/20
Giuliani: 14/17
Huckabee: 9/12
Mitt Romney appears to be in decent shape here, but if he loses Iowa and McCain finishes strong in the caucuses, could it shake up the race here? Also, what impact (if any) will turmoil in Pakistan have on the Republican race?
Now, let's turn to other interesting poll findings, including several beyond the "horse race."
*27% of registered Democrats and 25% of registered Republicans in Iowa say they could still change their minds before the caucuses next Thursday.
*In NH, 33% of registered Democrats and 42% of registered Republicans say they still might vote for somebody else. Obviously, this race is far, FAR from being decided!
*John Edwards is the 2nd choice for 23% of Iowa registered Democratic voters, compared to 18% for Barack Obama and 16% for Hillary Clinton. This could prove crucial as people switch from the single-digit, "non-viable" candidates like Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd. (that's the way these caucuses work; crazy, I know, but I didn't make up the rules)
*92% of Iowa registered Democrats say they are "satisfied" with the candidates. On the Republican side, only 75% are "satisfied."
*Regardless of who Iowa registered Democrats support, they value the "need for new ideas" first (42%), followed by "the value of experience" (25%) and "both equally" (25%).
*On electability, 34% of Iowa registered Democrats say Hillary Clinton has the best chance of winning in November. This compares to 22% for John Edwards and 22% for Barack Obama.
*Barack Obama holds a significant edge among Iowa registered Democrats when asked who will "produce new ideas" (46%) and "substantially change the way things are done in Washington" (36%). Obama is tied (30%-29%) with Edwards on the question of "honesty and integrity," with Clinton trailing a bit (21%).
*Hillary Clinton holds a big lead on having "the right experience to be president." A whopping 48% of Iowa registered Democrats prefer Clinton in this area, compared to 21% for Edwards and just 10% for Obama.
*Clinton leads (over Edwards and Obama) among Iowa registered Democrats as best able to fight terrorism and protect national security (36%-21%-19%), handle the economy (40%-27%-18%), handle health care (40%-28%-20%), and handle the war in Iraq (33%-23%-22%).
*On the question of whether the candidate is ready to be president or needs "a few more years," Hillary Clinton comes out on top by a wide margin over Barack Obama, with 79% saying Clinton is ready compared to just 43% for Obama (48% say he needs "a few more years").
*Iowa and NH Republicans differ greatly on who they think "would be best on social issues, such as abortion and gay rights." In Iowa, where evangelicals are strong, Huckabee comes out ahead of Romney by a 44%-22% margin. In NH, where evangelicals are relatively scarce, Romney leads Huckabee 32%-16% on this measure, with Giuliani and McCain at 17% and 13%, respectively.
*Huge difference: Iowa Republicans overwhelmingly (73%) believe it was worth going to war in Iraq, compared to just 12% of Democrats. In NH, 56% of Republicans and just 8% of Democrats say it was worth going to war in Iraq.
*The top issues for Iowa Democrats are the war in Iraq (43%), health care (39%), and the economy (28%). Among Iowa registered Republicans, it's the war in Iraq (31%), national security (28%), illegal immigration (23%), the economy (19%), and "morality and family values" (16%).
*The top issues for NH Democrats are the war in Iraq (42%), health care (35%), and the economy (26%). For NH Republicans, it's a statistical 4-way tie between the economy (29%), national security (29%), the war in Iraq (28%), and illegal immigration (27%).
After reading the Washinton Post story about how lame Obama's reaction was to Bhutto's death, it's no contest in my opinion [Clinton,Obama Seize on Killing, Reactions Illustrate Their Key Differences, 12/28/07].
It took Obama and his key advisors three hours to manufacture a response, which unfortunately was about Clinton, not Bhutto. Why so long to respond? -- Obama had to call some important people to "get it right". What has heartfelt symthathy got to do with getting it right and is this an example of thinking on your feet?
And, Obama claims to have an "in" with/for the world's People of Color! Even Mr. Bush made a "heartfelt" statement very quickly after the tragedy occured.