I would add Peggy Frank to the list of RoVA disappointments. She came close in an absolutely gerrymandered district, and I wouldn't be surprised to see her come back fighting in 2009. The advances we made in Hampton Roads were superb as well, and I truly believe they set Democrats up for future gains in the area.

Great analysis!

Johnny Joannou and Henry Light spent about $625,000 on their primary; Donald McEachin and Benny Lambert about $440,000 on theirs.  GOP true believers would have no problem characterizing these races as "Democrats trying to eat their own".  And that $1 million-plus would certainly have been useful in races elsewhere.

I'm not defending Lambert here or even Joannou--just pointing out that arguments like that cut both ways.

Is that all that money came after the primary and most was not political donations to buy influence. Walter Stocsh was the majority leader and raised $1,000,000 before anyone even announced they were running (though in fairness he knew he would get a challenge). McEachin running against Lambert and Light running against Joannou could certainly be characterized as "Democratic Party in-fighting"- but the difference is simple- out infighting did nothing to impact the election- while Republican infighting lost them the Senate.

This was more a deposing than in-fighting. It wasn't petty. I'll never be able to look at Charlie Brown in that pumpkin patch again in quite the same way. McEachin was the rightful heir in this battle.

All that Democratic money went to pay for the primaries; Joannou and McEachin both had pretty much a free ride in the general.  And again, the point is that money spent on the primary is money not spent elsewhere in the general.  You can't assume it wouldn't have gone elsewhere any more than you can assume the Republican money would have.

5 & 6 - Moran, Deeds and '09

Seems to me that somebody's strong affinity for Creigh Deeds trumped their judgement.  Creigh's puzzling announcement doesn't merit a spot in the top ten, much less two spots.

Indeed in talking to Democrats at a number of holiday parties in southern Virginia, the most charitable interpretation has been that Deed's audaciously early entry was a very odd thing and demonstrated a fair amount of political weakness.  There seems to be a widespread consensus that Deeds must be really worried about facing a nomination contest against a better organized candidate with far greater grassroots appeal and fundraising potential.

A surprisingly sizeable minority of those I chatted with expressed (a few times with language that can't be reprinted in a family-oriented blog) a less charitable sentiment - unadulterated fury.

These folks were more than a little ticked off.  In their view, we enter 2008 with:

- the best chance since 1964 to deliver Virginia's electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee;

- a chance to pick up two or perhaps three Congressional seats; and

- a sense that about the only things that could derail Mark Warner's Senate campaign are complacency and over-confidence.

Given the incredible amount of hard work, focus and unity that will be required to hit that trifecta (which hasn't even been within the realm of the possible in many of our lifetimes), these Democrats were astounded that Senator Deeds stepped right into the middle of it all and started the primary race for the 2009 gubernatorial election.

It's not that they believe Deed's actions will be significant enough to cost Mark Warner the Senate election.  It is, however, their worry that the inevitable distractions and disagreements arising from this earliest ever primary campaign will prevent us from achieving the almost perfect political operation that will be required to take those Congressional seats and deliver those electoral votes.

9.  Byrne/Connolly Primary

Being from southern Virginia, I have to admit that I don't know either Ms. Byrne or Mr. Connolly and am ignorant of the intricacies of Fairfax Democratic politics.  I have, however, followed both of their careers fairly closely and don't understand at all how this primary could even be close.

Despite the great affection for Ms. Byrne displayed by many who write here (and I'll be happy to read and listen to try to figure out if I've missed something), it seems to me that she's been an almost unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party.

When she left the Fairfax County government to go to Congress, she certainly had contributed to an atmosphere of contention  and bickering that helped lay the foundation for the rise of Tom Davis.  

In 1994, she overwhelmingly lost her congressional seat to Davis who promptly took over the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee and, unfortunately, did a hell of a job extending the Gingrich era.  Now 1994 was an admittedly awful year to be running as a Democrat, yet Norman Sisisky, Rick Boucher and L.F. Payne each managed to be reelected in much tougher Virginia districts.

Following that loss, she made it known very early that she would be running against Mark Warner for the Democratic nomination for the U. S. Senate in 1996.  Try as I might to come up with something charitable to say about that decision, incredibly vain and foolish is about as nice as I can be about the petulant campaign she ran.

Then we come to 2005 and her decision to seek the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor.  Certainly she had the right to run, as any of us do; and, certainly, she ran an effective primary campaign. Unfortunately, she also won the primary.  I say this because one highly regarded Republican operative told me after the general election that, based on their polling data, this operative strongly believed that had Viola Baskerville, Chap Peterson or Phil Puckett been the nominee the Democrats would have swept all three statewide offices.  

As for Mr. Connolly, it seems to me that he's worked incredibly hard and been exceedingly effective at what he was elected to do -- running the local government of Fairfax County. By his temperament, apparently, he's presided over a government that avoided the embarrassingly loud and contentious squabbles that so often afflict localities (witness Loudon County over the past couple years).  He also seems to have managed the efficient, and from a southern Virginia point of view the almost luxurious, provision of local governmental services in a political jurisdiction that I believe is larger in population than some states.  That he was able to do this year in and year out in the face of the antiquated constraints that Virginia's Constitution places on localities is nothing short than a monumental achievement.

Having a mother who had a very successful tenure on a City Council in Virginia and retired undefeated, I learned that about the only time a lot of citizens start talking about local government is when somebody really screwed up (our adjacent county seemed to take great pride in providing the screw ups and clamor that contrasted with an efficiently run city).  Nevertheless, the importance of that efficiency and lack of drama shouldn't be underestimated.  It is, in fact, what gives people faith in government.

That's why it seems to me that Mr. Connolly's time in office laid the foundation for turning Fairfax County blue.  Certainly, demographics, the debacle of the Gilmore administration, the contrastingly enormous successes of Mark Warner and the mind-blowing failures of the man in the White House all played a part. Yet the importance of the local government should not be forgotten as it so often is when things run smoothly and well.

For these reasons, the notion that a Byrne/Connolly primary could be viewed as even remotely competitive seems a delusion of almost Gilmorean proportions.