Roll Call, a newspaper that covers Capitol Hill, reported this morning that Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has identified 40 Republican-held House seats that Democrats plan to target in next year's elections.We have a very real opportunity to take two or three seats in Virginia in 2008 (from among the 2nd, 5th, 10th and 11th), and flip our state's Congressional delegation from majority Republican to majority Democrat. In our Constitutional system, this actually matters. In the case of a contested Presidential election which is to be resolved by the House of Representatives, the delegations vote by state. This nearly happened in 2000. Thus, if the delegation is majority Democrat, and the Presidential election is thrown to the House, Virginia's Presidential vote would go to the Democrat.But there were no seats from Virginia on the list, even though there has been plenty of talk in recent months that the state is trending Democratic. - The Washington Post
And yet the DCCC is targeting none of our seats for 2008 (so far). Follow below the fold for a bit more analysis of each opportunity.
In the 10th and 11th Districts, for example, the fact that there will probably be Democratic primaries raises the profile of these races locally, and engages the voters earlier and longer than a non-primary race. Add to that the fact that Judy Feder and Leslie Byrne are both returning candidates, with all the experience and name recognition from their previous races, and an early fundraising lead in Judy's case, the possibility of a rematch increases Democratic chances of winning the seats.
In the 5th, Virginia hosts the front line of the national culture spat (considering the trends in political opinion of the past few years, it should be downgraded from a culture war), as Democrats vie to take on Virgil Goode. Congressman Goode, we might recall, infamously became irate upon hearing a newly-elected representative from Minnesota would be taking the oath of office with his hand on a Koran, instead of a bible, as he is a Muslim. Given the Congressman's penchant for saying awful things, combined with the fact that he is a party-switcher, and one opponent is already raising tons of money; this will be an active race. In a Presidential year, in which turnout will be up and Virginia's Democrats will be motivated with Mark Warner on the ticket, the 5th could go back to the Democratic column for the first time in a decade.
And in the 2nd, Thelma Drake is already the weakest Republican incumbent in the Virginia delegation (having won with just under 52% of the vote in 2006). While the Democratic party has had some difficulties recruiting a challenger to face Drake, we should remember that Jim Webb did not become our nominee for Senate until summer 2006. As with the 5th, a Presidential election with Mark Warner on the ballot makes any decent Democratic nominee competitive.
At the end of the day, if the DCCC wants to ignore Virginia, that's okay. Virginia's Democrats have been building our successes on our own initiative for a while, we'll keep at it.
(Though full credit and thanks to the national blogosphere for its support of Jim Webb. Crossposted from Leesburg Tomorrow.)
The VA Democratic party is growing and becoming stronger each day, the current elected officials with Kaine, Moran, Webb can throw their support to the down ticket campaigns.
The Democratic top ticket candidates both Presidential and Senate (Warner) will have a huge draw and impact.
The 11th can be pushed with the Fairfax and Prince Williams Committees and elected officials.
As far as the 10th, while we all like Judy - she had the DCCC support and only got in the 30% range so they have already invested in her the last cycle and did not get a good showing.
I am not familar with the 5th and the 2nd - I think you are right with Thelma Drake being weak, and races come and go based in early support. (The DCCC gave money to judy late)....and based on future fund raising status they do through in money into races as the cycle gets into full range.
I just see them realizing that Virginia has a good internal system and that we probably can handle lots of this on our own.
I just see them realizing that Virginia has a good internal system and that we probably can handle lots of this on our own.If the standard of competition is whether a state has a strong internal organization, with the assumption that states with strong Democratic organizatons should "take care of themselves," then why are many of the seats being targeted by the DCCC in New York? New York State has one of the oldest and strongest Democratic organizations in the nation. (Thanks Martin Van Buren)
I think the standard is whether the win is likely and consolidation of regional dominance. The DCCC is trying to really lock down the Northeast and other areas with strong, historic Democratic tendencies (California), and consolidate midwestern gains (Ohio, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan).
My question is why they are going on the offensive in a state like Florida and not on a state like Virginia.