* The demographics of the district benefit the Democratic candidate.* The Democratic presidential nominee won the district in 2004.
* The Democratic presidential nominee performed reasonably well in the district in 2004, and the 2008 Democratic House candidate is particularly strong.
* The Republican incumbent running for re-election in the district is damaged -- either ethically or in some other manner.
Not one Virginia race made the list. I just don't see why Tom Davis and Frank Wolf aren't being targeted. Hopefully, given that they have over $30 million cash on hand they will spread the love beyond those districts.
List below the jump.
AK-AL: Don Young
AZ-01: Open
AZ-03: John Shadegg
CA-04: John Doolittle
CA-26: David Dreier
CA-50: Brian Bilbray
CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave
CT-04: Chris Shays
FL-08: Ric Keller
FL-09: Gus Bilirakis
FL-13: Vern Buchanan
FL-24: Tom Feeney
ID-01: Bill Sali
IL-10: Mark Kirk
IL-11: Open
IL-14: Open
MI-07: Tim Walberg
MI-09: Joe Knollenberg
MN-03: Open
MN-06: Michele Bachmann
MO-06: Sam Graves
NV-03: Jon Porter
NJ-03: Open
NJ-07: Open
NM-01: Open
NM-02: Open
NY-13: Vito Fossella
NY-25: Jim Walsh
NY-26: Tom Reynolds
NY-29: Randy Kuhl
NC-08: Robin Hayes
OH-01: Steve Chabot
OH-02: Jean Schmidt
OH-14: Steve LaTourette
OH-15: Open
OH-16: Open
PA-03: Phil English
WA-08: Dave Reichert
WV-02: Sheley Moore Capito
WY-AL: Open
Frank Wolf is pretty safe for now. The 10th CD, lest we forget, voted 55% for Bush in 2004, and both Tim Kaine and Jim Webb barely made 50% there. Changing demographics and improved organization aside, the 10th is still a long way from "benefit[ing] the Democratic candidate".
As for the rest of the state, the 2nd CD looks tantalizingly close; Allen only got 51% there, Kaine won (though less than a majority), and Thelma Drake is a much weaker incumbent than Wolf. It will take a Judy Feder-quality candidate to win there, though, and there doesn't appear to be one on the horizon right now.