Why Iowa Rep. Loebsack endorsement is important
By: Todd Smyth
Published On: 12/17/2007 3:08:31 PM
There are 5 congressional districts in Iowa, 3 Democratic and 2 Republican. The 3 Dem districts have split their endorsements 3 ways Bruce Braley > Edwards, Leonard Boswell > Clinton and now Dave Loebsack > Obama. From what I have heard, Obama was already holding his own in the other 2 Dem districts despite endorsements but David Loebsack's 2nd district includes key cities Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Muscatine, Burlington and Ottumwa.
This is the first time in 29 years Democrats have held the 2nd District and Loebsack upset James Leach last year with excellent grassroots organizing. Loebsack's organization could make the difference by itself in Iowa. I also think Obama will do better in the 2 Republican districts because he is the most likable among Republicans who may switch sides and because Hillary is almost no ones second choice in Iowa, she will likely come in 3rd. If we have an Obama, Edwards, Hillary finish in Iowa, that sets up Obama for a win in New Hampshire and that sets up a win in South Carolina. Obama also has the money to compete on Super Tuesday and with the big mo, he could do it. Edwards can only win in Iowa and there is no scenario left for him to win any other state and that's why the Clintons are helping him out. They want to split the difference leading up to Super Tuesday, which would otherwise strongly favor Hillary.
US Rep. David Loebsack
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...
Iowa's 2nd congressional district
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...
IOWA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT Maps
http://nationalatlas.gov/print...
Iowa Congressional Breakdown:
Bruce Braley (D) - First District
Dave Loebsack (D) - Second District
Leonard Boswell (D) - Third District
Tom Latham (R) - Fourth District
Steve King (R) - Fifth District
Comments
Recent Iowa Polls: (Todd Smyth - 12/17/2007 4:27:31 PM)
Quad City Times Poll: 12/10 - 12/13 500 LV Obama +9.0
Strategic Vision Poll: 12/08 - 12/10 600 LV Obama +8.0
I like Edwards and Obama (brimur - 12/17/2007 10:49:10 PM)
But I really don't think that anyone can say that Edwards can't win if he wins Iowa. Iowa is everything. All these other polls will mean nothing when the Iowa results come in. On the Democratic side there is no ideological divide like there is among the Republican field. That means all the support we see in these polls is even softer and more fluid. Whoever wins Iowa will be in the catbird seat.