Especially if McConell is polling under 50%. If my memory serves me right Allen was supposed to win easily and slingshot into the presidency.

The early outlook is definitely good.

McConnells chances of re-election are much worse than Allen's were 2 years ago.

Another Webb candidate? Check out Lt. Col. Rick Noriega's website here. He's taking on Sen. Cornyn in TX. Cornyn's numbers look like Allen's did when Webb first entered the race. Solid, but not insurmountable.

He's an unabashed progressive. He's pro-choice, is liberal on gay rights, etc (unsure of his position on gun rights, to complete the Republican scare tactic arena). But he's military, he's national guard, he's worked the border, he's a legislator, he was a teacher.

And as polls indicate, Texans are as displeased with their Senator and President Bush as most as the rest of us are. Cornyn is as dumb, lazy, and hackish as they come -- at least McConnell is crafty. The big question make is, in a Presidential year, can Texas Dems get enough Hispanics registered and then get them to the polls? He can win by turning out the vote in south Texas; bringing 'em out in droves in Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, Dallas, and Houston; and working the suburbs of these cities.

I don't know much about Horne; my impression is that he's more conventionally conservative on social issues, but that might be wrong. I don't really care -- McConnell is Obstructionist in Chief, and no one deserves to be hoisted on his own petard more than him. But Cornyn is a good second. At least both these bad guys will not be given free rides to continue wrecking this country. They are the two worst Senators in the entire august body.

I personally would not invest in poll numbers at this point, especially in Texas.  I recall that fateful day in 1994 when my fellow Texans elected George W. Bush when Ann Richards had like a 60% approval rating.  

First, Democrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in years.  All statewide offices are in Republican hands, and there are a whole lot because in Texas they don't trust the governor to appoint his own administration.  If you look back at even Perry's election and add his numbers to Carole Keeton Strayhorn to get the total Republican vote, there are only 20 counties out of 254 counties where the Democratic vote was greater than 49.9%.  And of the cities you mention, only Dallas and Travis (Austin) county went majority against the two Republicans.  Majorities in Tarrant (Ft. Worth), El Paso, Bexar (San Antonio), and Harris (Houston) went for one of the two Republican candidates.

And those progressive values are bound to sink him.  The state voted overwhelmingly to approve a gay marriage ban amendment to the already voluminous Texas constitution.  There was only one county, Travis, where the amendment failed to get a majority.  The rest of the counties voted over 60% for the amendment.

On top of those things, he has to get over an awfully big money hurdle.  The business community that runs Texas (and I mean literally, the Oil Industry had been hand picking the "elected" commissioners on the Texas Railroad Commission forever) will fall behind Cornyn.  Unless the Dems find a magical spring of dollar bills, look for Cornyn to flood the airwaves.  People may have a lackluster opinion of him now, but that doesn't mean they will vote for a Democrat.

Living in the two states, I can tell you the magic that Democrats have here is just not the same there.  Here you have the most populous areas trending Democratic, there the major metropolitan areas (despite their growth) are consistently Republican.

But a Presidential year makes it more likely to happen. If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, or even Mike Huckabee, I think Noriega has a shot. I generally don't buy into polls that much, but I believe the Bush numbers, and the fact that he's wrecked the Republican brand that much gives me hope.

I voted against that stupid anti-gay marriage amendment in Austin in 2005 and lost; I voted against the stupid Virginia version in 2006 and lost. [I voted against every single Constitutional amendment those clowns put on the ballot between 1997 and 2005, and over 90% passed. It's ridiculous, as you alluded to.] But Virginia voted over-whelmingly for its gay marriage ban, too, and Webb still got elected. [Texas' garnered 76% versus 59% here in VA -- but '05 is an off year election, so I don't think a direct comparison is fair.]

I understand that Texas is in much worse shape than Virginia, but there are rumblings. Dallas has gone completely Democratic most recent elections. I'd bet big sums that El Paso and San Antonio will do the same for Noriega. And Houston, inside the loop, is very liberal.

This race will come down to the suburbs like the Woodlands, Round Rock, Spring, etc. The 'burbs are turning against the horror show that the Republican party has become. I think we'll see a similar effect in Texas in '08.

Believe me, I have no illusions about west Texas, Ft. Worth, or especially east Texas. But I think Noriega has the right resume to challenge Cornyn. The Republican high water mark in Texas has come and gone. Whether a federal election can flip is what '08 will be all about.

I don't think it's necessarily that there aren't many Democratic voters, I think the problem is that they don't mobilize while the Republicans drum up their entire base (I guess this is a general problem among the party as a whole.

Most college students I know in Texas (a left-leaning demographic) don't vote. A lot of Hispanics I know in Texas (again, a democratic-leaning demographic) don't vote. Blacks I know in Texas (do I need to repeat it?) do not vote. It also seems that Democratic voters in Texas accept defeat before they vote and decide that their time would be better spent at home.

Hopefully these un-motivated voters mobilize in Texas- I agree that he has the right resume and that may help sway undecided voters.

And hopefully Horne can pull a Webb in Kentucky. Actually, I'm hoping for two "Jim Webbs" this coming November.

But Dems in Texas have been organizing, spurred by online activism. I'd say they're 5-10 years back in Virginia's cycle -- the question is, are they at Mark Warner's Senate run, or his gubernatorial run? We'll have to see.

I was in college in Texas and didn't vote, either. It's a terrible problem, but we're mostly all stupid/indifferent/tuned out at that age.

Hispanics are the key. But that means the work has to happen in organizing and registering those communities from January through September. I hope people down there are working this angle hard.

And if more stuff like this was available in the mainstream media, more people would vote against these clowns.

Check out the results of this poll.

I don't think that that poll should be used as a definite indicator, but it is a very good sign and Noriega can easily build off of it.

I recall Cornyn being a little above 50% in head-to-head matchups, but things may have changed since.  

I supported him in his last race (financially, not with actual boots on the ground) as he was a Wes Clark-endorsed candidate.  Clark did a lot of appearances and fundraising for him.  With Stumbo deciding not to run against Turtle Face, I was very glad to get the notice from Horne today that he was in.  Hope we can generate support for him as it will be a tough, hard fought race.  McConnell won't go down easily.

I have met Andrew Horne on quite a few occasions.  I think he will make a fine Senator.  He will 150x better than Mitch McConnell that's for sure.  I live in PA -- I am still going to try and find a way to help his campaign.

This is an important election.  It may be the most important in the Senate.

- John Bruhns

Glad to see that you have not, after all, turned your back on progressive politics, and will be participating. Hooray!

When was there any question that John Bruhns would "turn his back" on progressive politics?  The guy's as dedicated (and principled) as anyone I've ever met.

I appreciate it  

I'm still here, never left --  I'm here to stay.