National political analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote an analysis a week ago that discussed the potential significance of a Tim Kaine victory in Virginia. I think this is very interesting (bolding added):
...when the Virginia gubernatorial race began many months ago, most observers thought the Republican nominee, Jerry Kilgore, had the edge given the Republican lean of the state. So a Kaine victory, even given the popularity of Warner, would still be noteworthy as a psychological defeat for the GOP.One GOP insider told me that a Kaine victory, particularly if it is regarded as more decisive than polls have been predicting for weeks, would be regarded as ?the canary in the coal mine.?
?It could be worse than people now know. We could be in for a big ass whipping,? said the veteran Republican insider who promised that a clear Kaine victory would produce a ?meltdown? in the national party.
Interesting. I personally doubt there will be such a "meltdown," but the formerly all-powerful Republican Party certainly is looking fragile these days. In particular, Republicans appear to be losing ground in suburbia, home of moderate and independent voters. That could ultimately prove to be their undoing. Here's more Rothenberg on this subject:
Privately, Republican insiders are expressing more and more concern about Kilgore?s showing in Northern Virginia...If Kilgore fares poorly there, it would unquestionably have GOP strategists worried about the party?s standing in similar suburban areas around the country.
Well, it appears that the worst Republican fears have come to life, with Jerry Kilgore getting shellacked in Northern Virginia and the suburbs of Richmond and Hampton Roads. Not good news if you're a Republican officeholder heading into 2006, that's for sure. So much for the "permanent Republican majority" in this country. The big question is whether or not the Democrats can translate Republican failures into their own, coherent, positive vision for the future. If they do that, political pollsters and pundits may soon be speaking of a "permanent Democratic majority." We'll see.