of a brokered convention this time around.  At the moment, my guess is that the odds are higher for the Republicans than it would be for the Democrats.

...they seem to be growing!

I'd say the odds are higher in both parties than anyone realizes, but it's contingent upon early primary states breaking for different candidates prior to Super Tuesday.  If one candidate wins IA, NH and SC, it his opponents' supporters are less likely to turn out on Super Tuesday because they perceive that their votes won't matter and the front-runner will win anyway.

I've thought the conventions have been "broken" for many years now. :)

sometimes spellcheck does funny things.

Their primaries operate on a winner-take-all system, as opposed to the more proportional system the Democrats use.  

here

I strongly recommend these for all the poli-junkies here.

In addition to running average poll graphics for each of the Republican and Democratic nominations.  They also have them for each of the early primary states (as late as Penn, FL, and NJ), and national general election matchups: plus here: watch the polls for a Clinton/Rudy/Bloomberg matchup.  On the downside, they haven't been tracking national general election matchups of Huckabee v DemX.  They do have Fred Thompson vs. DemX - he loses everything by double digits, ad you'd expect.

If some presidential candidates had to come down to Virginia for its primary votes after Super Tuesday?  Highly unlikely, but we can dream...

Still around 10% or less, though.

Remember when Jim Webb  had that now-famous conversation with (I think) Steve Jardin and when Steve told Jim he thought that his odds were about 15% ? And Jim said something to the effect that "I like those odds. Let's do it". The rest, as they say, is history and all us Webbies helped Jim, Steve and many other's make that history.

Don't get me wrong. There's no Jim Webb person or statistical miracle working here, but IMHO unless one of the top 3 Dems. gets blown away in both IA and NH I think after Super Tues. there will still be enough uncommitted delegates left for Virginia could well cause what you're calling a "brokered" convention. If that should happne and no one wins the nomination on the first ballot, most states' delegates will be free to vote for any of the candidates who haven't already dropped out by then.

Then we could see a good compromise candidate who has little (no ?) negative baggage and who could therefore unite the party for the general election. You probably already know who I believe could be that candidate - if he doesn't win on his own on the 1st or 2nd ballot: John Edwards, not divisive, very articulate in supporting all the core party principles, etc. I haven't a clue who would be a compromise candidate's choice of a VP running mate, but I don't think Obama would pick Clinton nor vice versa, but if either Obama or clinto wins the nomination I do believe Edwards would be a superb VP choice.

I don't take much stock in polls (the only poll that means anything is the one on election day, as Jim Webb told us more than once last year). And I'm hoping the time that Iowa and New Hampshire, with such a small % of delegates and so few electoral college representatives is finally drawing to an end.

I haven't seen a poll recently for California and Florida. Although if Florida's delegates don't get seated until the convention California will of couse be huge, and I think I recall that the favorites in Iowa and NH aren't necessarily the same for California.

Back to reality. The first day of my post-grad. statistics class at GWU our professor reminded all of us
of a truth. There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies and statistics.  And we all know that anything can happen in a very short time to dramatically change the political landscape. I actually do believe it's not at all unrealistic that the nomination could still be in play by 12 Feb.

Whoever wins Iowa on the Democratic side wins the presidency.

and I still don't necessarily believe it. I can easily see Edwards (or, to a lesser extent, Obama) winning Iowa, but losing the nomination to Hillary through attrition. And I'm saying that as an Edwards supporter.

Wins Iowa, then squeaks by in New Hampshire, wins solidly in South Carolina, momentum carries into Nevada, and then he takes it all.  

I think Obama takes the White House.

Amen!

n/t

I thought South Carolina was solidly Clinton...

http://desmoinesregister.com/a...

Michael Farris' endorsement of Huckabee in May, meaningless to much of the voting public, sent a strong signal to Crawford and other Christian home-school families in Iowa. Farris is founder and chairman of the Virginia-based Home School Legal Defense Association and the national figure for Christian home-school families.

"That was sort of the icing on the cake," Crawford said of Farris' endorsement. "It wasn't the be-all and end-all. But that was the thing that got me to take Governor Huckabee seriously."

Farris is pretty much as far right as you can get.