Looking at the numbers, Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 bears an overall similarity to that of Mark Warner in 2001. On the macro level, both Warner and Kaine won 52% of the statewide vote in their victories, with Kaine defeating Kilgore by nearly 6 percentage points. This compares to Warner's 5 point win over Mark Earley in 2001. Looking at the individual city and county results, however, reveals some interesting differences between Warner '01 and Kaine '05. Here are just a few:1) Tim Kaine in 2005 performed significantly worse than Mark Warner in 2001 throughout Southwest Virginia (SWVA). For instance, Kaine performed 17 points below Warner in Scott County, birthplace of Jerry Kilgore. Kaine also underperformed Warner in Norton City (-23 points), Wise (-20), Lee (-18), Russell (-17), Smyth (-15), Buchanan (-14), Tazewell (-13), Dickenson (-13), Bland (-11), Wythe (-11), Washington (-11), and Henry (-11).
2) Despite doing worse than Mark Warner in SWVA, Tim Kaine managed to top the 50% mark in two counties (Buchanan and Henry) and the 40% mark in several others (Dickinson, Norton City, Russell, Tazewell). In other words, there was no blowout yesterday for Jerry Kilgore in his home region of SWVA. Interestingly, Kaine's performance in SWVA was similar to John Kerry's in 2004, so this does not appear to be a fluke or a phenomenon related specifically to this particular race.
3) Overall, out of 134 Virginia cities and counties, Tim Kaine did worse than Mark Warner in 104, and better in 30. The reason that Kaine won the same overall statewide percentage as Mark Warner, despite losing in a lot more places, is that Kaine's 30 counties and cities included the largest locales in the state. For instance, Kaine surpassed Warner by 7 points in Charlottesville, 6 points in Fairfax, Arlington, and Loudoun, 4 points in Warner's home town of Alexandria (!), 3 points in Prince William county and Richmond City, and 2 points in Henrico County and Virginia Beach.
4) Somewhat surprisingly, Tim Kaine outperformed Mark Warner in Northern Virginia, including both "innner" and "outer" suburbs. This represents an extremely impressive performance for Kaine in Virginia's most populous and rapidly growing region. It bodes well for the future of the Democratic Party in Virginia, as by all rights, Tim Kaine actually should have done worse than Mark Warner in Warner's home base.
5) The challenge for Democrats, obviously, is to improve in the rural areas of Virginia, particularly SWVA. Otherwise, things are looking great in the urban areas and rapidly growing suburbs and "exurbs" of Washington DC and Richmond. The situation also isn't bad for the Democrats in Hampton Roads.
The bottom line is that Tim Kaine won with a geographical coalition that included Northern Virginia, the Richmond area, Charlottesville, and Hampton Roads. Jerry Kilgore did well in the rural areas of the state. Blue Virginia and Red Virginia, circa 2005 - fascinating.