With so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006. Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats. At least 20 GOP seats are open seats. Some from death, some from retirement, and some from Senate and Presidential runs. Far fewer Democratic seats are open.
Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. This list was vetted by Daily Kos yesterday, and their comments helped me correct any inaccuracies. The Democrats appear to have at least 24 seats in jeopardy, while the Republicans appear to have at least 44, with 4 at least 4 of those seats in Virginia. While it is very difficult to know where the Democrats will stand by Election Day, they will benefit from Republicans insistence on remaining in Iraq, and an economy on a downward spiral in the final months of the Bush Administration. Therefore, it is reasonable that the Democrats may enjoy at least a 40 seat majority in the 111th Congress. That is, if the Democrats can remain committed to fighting for the same ideals they did in 2006.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (8)
California 04 (Doolittle) - In a rematch from 2006, legal troubles for Doolittle have had even more time to fester, if he doesn't lose in the primary first. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, but unlike some other 2006 Democrats that lost in close races, Brown's chances are probably better this time.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Democrat Christine Jennings may have actually won in 2006, but Buchanan was the one who moved to Washington. Maybe this time, all votes WILL be counted in Florida.
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his leaving opens up this key swing district.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic district. Saxton's retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up.
New Jersey 07 - Open Seat - Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over.
New Mexico 01 - Open Seat - With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 and her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat.
Potentially Vulnerable Republicans (13)
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Shays seems to always eke out a victory, but this seat cannot be ruled out when he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg may face another tough contest in 2008.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.
New York 25 (Walsh) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and is likely to be tight in 2008 as well.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Kuhl has had close victories in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - Hayes struggled to keep his seat, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger in 2006.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Schmidt might not make it out of the primary, but if she does, she will face another tough challenge in 2008. Where is Paul Hackett when we need him?
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are probably better off without Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and will be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (23)
California 52 (Open Seat) - With Duncan Hunter doing his best Reagan impression while polling at 1% in the GOP Presidential race, his seat will host a tough battle for the GOP to retain it. My guess is the GOP candidate will pull the "immigration" card.
Colorado 06 (Open Seat) - While "President Tancredo" won't exist except in his own oddly-shaped head, he has left Democrats an opportunity to change the dialogue in this conservative-leaning district.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could easily slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Illinois 06 (Roskam) - Roskam has apparently scored points with constituents making this seat a difficult one for the Democrats. However, given his close victory last time, you never know.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006, but he remains vulnerable in 2008.
Illinois 14 (Open Seat) - Hastert's retirement opens up this seat for which the former Speaker of the House faced a spirited challenge in 2006.
Indiana 03 (Souder) - Souder faced a strong challenge out of nowhere in 2006.
Kentucky 04 (Davis) - Davis' strong defense of his seat in 2006 makes him less vulnerable in 2008
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Knollenberg's 6-point victory should be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) - Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the devil" just because they disagree with his vote against SCHIPP.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - The Democrats didn't mount much of an effort here in 2006, but with Pearce running for Senate against Heather Wilson, he adds another open GOP seat in New Mexico.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Heller's 6 point victory was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
New York 26 (Reynolds) - While the Foley issue lingered in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign, it is hard to believe that was the only reason this race was so close.
Ohio 07 (Open Seat) - Despite an easy GOP victory in 2006, the retirement of Dave Hobson leaves this seat open to potential Democratic takeover
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades.
Pennsylvania 15 (Dent) - Dent faced a decent challenge in 2006 from out of nowhere, and if the Democrats make an effort this time, they may have a chance.
Virginia 01 (Open Seat) - The death of JoAnn Davis leaves an open seat in a heavily Republican district. However, it appears as though the military aspect of this district leaves open the opportunity for the Democrats to thrust their own military candidate into the picture.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Maybe the voters will focus on actual issues this time, but if not, Drake will likely hold on again.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district that is trending more and more Democratic.
Virginia 11 (Davis) - Tom Davis will likely try and defend his seat, now that he dropped out of the Senate race. But, don't count out a Democratic challenge in this district which has been trending Democratic for several years now.
Washington 05 (McMorris) - McMorris fought off a potentially tough challenge from an under-funded Democratic challenger in 2006. However, if the Democrats make a serious run this time, she could be in trouble.
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (7)
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - This is probably the 2nd most vulnerable Democrat to Lampson given that he barely won last time, despite Mark Foley remaining on the ballot and his real challenger having little time to gain any ground.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He will face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) - Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who kept his seat due to the Democratic wave.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was this victory a fling for conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship?
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
Ohio 18 (Space) - With Bob Ney long gone, and with the GOP having time to find a decent candidate, Space's good fortune is gone.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 06, but now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Potentially Vulnerable Democrats (3)
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 due to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) - Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 06, but will likely face tough opposition
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. However, he still has a good chance of retaining his seat.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (14)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate in 2008 in what remains a swing district
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - While Giffords had a strong victory in 06, immigration remains a key issue here that could keep her vulnerable
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds
Connecticut 02 (Courtney) - Courtney won by the slimmest of margins in 06, but given the voters in the district, he probably won't have as much trouble this time
Indiana 02 (Donnelly) - While his 8-point victory was impressive, it isn't enough to keep the GOP from mounting a serious challenge in 2008.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest Democratic victory of the Indiana Three.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmouth) - Yarmouth's victory in 2006 was impressive, but he may still be vulnerable.
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall's surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can't get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong. Gillibrand looks to be in good shape for now, but may still face some decent opposition in 2008.
New York 24 (Arcuri) - I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a challenge against the freshman incumbent.
North Carolina 11 (Shuler) - Shuler won a large victory in 2006, but still may face a strong challenge in 2008 in what remains a conservative district.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election to a second term.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district. He is likely to defend his seat, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district
Key campaign resources
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Notes on the House races
Just curious.
Matusleo
Ut Prosim
He voted against SCHIP and against the Veto Override. These are the 2 votes that have really pissed people off down here. He also is not supporting the 1 for 1 ratio for troop rotations and has not supported any kind of timeline for returning the troops from Iraq.