CQ: Forgit Has A Chance to Win

By: Kindler
Published On: 12/1/2007 9:08:36 PM


CQ Politics has an interesting analysis of the Forgit-Wittman race in the 1st District which makes clear that Forgit has a shot at winning this one.  Rather than rate the race "Safe Republican", CQ has instead opted to rate it as "Republican Favored."

In discussing this race and another Congressional special election in Ohio on the same day, CQ notes that both districts "typically have strong Republican leanings."

But there is at least a sliver of uncertainty that, in CQ Politics' analysis, mitigates against applying Safe Republican ratings to each of these short-term contests. The national political environment - which turned sharply against President Bush and his Republican Party in the 2006 midterm elections - remains unsettled. Additionally, the special elections held in mid-December, as most residents of the two districts are focused heavily on their holiday preparations, make the relative success of the parties' voter turnout efforts difficult to predict.

Considering that we didn't have much of a chance to beat George Allen in a state with "strong Republican leanings", let's take this sliver of hope and turn it into an UPSET!

Comments



Teamwork (cycle12 - 12/1/2007 9:44:39 PM)
Agreed, "Kindler"; if we each do our part, perhaps just a small part, we can win... again.

Thanks!

Steve



Finding Forgit -- Where Are the Mailings??? (veryblue - 12/3/2007 12:20:17 PM)
I'm doing calling here in Stafford County, and suprisingly, lots of people (savvy people) don't know we are having an election.  Therefore, I agree with Cycle12 --do some mailings/TV ads/call your neighbor, call the campaign to get call lists.  Get the DCCC to open its pocketbook -- quickly.  

We have a winner -- like Webb -- experienced, energetic, smart on the issues...Moderate

Also, the Strong Democrats are very warm toward Phil...



He can win this .... but (ub40fan - 12/1/2007 9:52:11 PM)
What Phil Forgit has to do right now ... is pull together a couple good Mailings  / Fliers that projects his background .... get some other media exposure and hope the local democratic committees get the vote out.

At this point nobody really cares about this election and I predict it will be a record low turn out (just partisans).  A democrat couldn't have a better chance to win in this climate but Phil has to get his Profile Raised with the general public.



Agreed. (Lowell - 12/1/2007 11:39:51 PM)
It's time to rev up some excitement and belief that Forgit can actually win this seat.  If that happens, I believe he can win.  


Agreed (thegools - 12/2/2007 4:33:13 PM)
I live in Warrenton and have already received at least 5 mailings from Wittman.

There was a parade in Warrenton this weekend,and Forgit was the only candidate there.  We could have used more people to march with us and hand out literature.  There were only about ten people.  If we'd had a hundred it would have looked even better.

I would recommend to people to call and see what needs to be done.  Getting out the Forgit/base voters will be key and getting a high turnout in heavily democratic areas too.  



And that's why I canvassed today (Vivian J. Paige - 12/1/2007 10:17:31 PM)
Because he can win. I hope others will find time to work on this race as well.


there is an effort in N part of district (teacherken - 12/1/2007 10:43:08 PM)
organized by Harriet Hirsch of the Webb Brigades.  Every little bit helps.


I'm doing a little phone-banking (Ron1 - 12/1/2007 10:47:16 PM)
Been very busy, but managed to squeeze in some phoning -- and hoping to do about 30 mins/day during the week, and then a full day next Sunday.

It's pretty easy, if anyone here feels like trying to turn Dems out, you should get involved.



Phone from home (Vivian J. Paige - 12/1/2007 11:46:18 PM)
Contact the campaign. They will provide the call sheets.


ABSOLUTELY! (Susan Mariner - 12/2/2007 2:22:27 AM)
Sorry for the yelling, but Phil absolutely has a chance to win.  I am in the Newport News office full time now, and it is very exciting.  

Everybody that can help out in the Southern part of the district, please contact the Hampton Roads Field Director, Jamey, at jamey@forgit2007.com to let her know your availability.  You can phone from home or the office, knock on doors, deliver signs, whatever.  Just help us. There is momentum building, and there's no time to waste.  

We can win this if we all jump in now!

Susan

p.s. Can you imagine the impact a Forgit win would have on both the Democratic and Republican parties in Virginia and the county?  This is not race to sit on the sidelines with.  We've pulled off some amazing victories, and this would be another show stopper for the nation to marvel at.



Do you have any polling info? (Lowell - 12/2/2007 7:44:20 AM)
That's what I'd like to see, a poll that indicated Forgit is within striking distance of Wittman.  I think the absence of any polling, or any DCCC $$$ into this race, is why at least some people have doubts it's winnable.


KEEP YELLING, SUSAN! (cycle12 - 12/2/2007 2:42:31 AM)
If that's what it takes to get everyone's attention, and Phil Forgit wins as a result, then that's fine...

I'm doing some yelling for Phil down here in the 6th and 9th Congressional Districts.

KEEP YELLING - FORGIT FOR CONGRESS!

FORGIT FOR CONGRESS!

Thanks!

Steve  



Make every vote count (jlmccreery - 12/2/2007 4:17:45 AM)
I'm mailing my absentee ballot for Forgit today.

John McCreery
Yokohama, Japan



We are so fortunate... (lgb30856 - 12/2/2007 3:24:44 PM)
to have the workers like Susan Mariner to help in the campaign. She is tireless.
Let's win this one.