I have a theory that, with the true face and "governing" philosophy of the Republican party fully exposed once and for all, that the PVIs used to handicap congressional races are very much outdated -- districts with PVIs up to R +6 will be competitive, or even Democrat favored, and districts with PVIs up to about R +10 will be competitive with the right candidates.

The 11th is a blue district -- I think Leslie Byrne's entry into the race almost ensures that Davis doesn't run again, and this will be the easiest pickup next year.

I hope we field quality candidates in the 4th and 7th, and I am happy at least Sam Rasoul has stepped up to challenge the 6th and that we have activity in the 1st, but I am most interested in the 10th, 5th, and 2nd. We have multiple candidates in the 10th and 5th, and I assume Hampton Roads Dems, with the wind at their back, will get a quality candidate in the 2nd.

 

we need to say Farewell Frank...and Tom, and Virgil, and Thelma, and...

It seems to me that both the 11th District and the Senate races are the "most interesting" because these are the races in which we are most likely to have Democratic pick-ups.  So it is not that the other races aren't "interesting", but, as a collective, we are emotionally investing in our best chances of victory; we enjoy watching these campaigns help turn Virginia blue(r).  

What is exciting to me that the 5th District came in third place on this web-poll, even before other Northern Virginian potential pick-ups.  Is this a testament to Tom Perriello and Dave Shreve, or the fact that Virgil Goode is a nutjob?  More than likely, it is a combination of the two.  But, as a new 5th District Democrat, I am looking forward to this race and hope to be intimately involved in one of these campaigns.

Peace,
Drew

in the following order:

1. U.S. Senate (barring some unforeseen disaster, Mark Warner's going to win this)
2. 11th CD (especially if Tom Davis retires)
3. 10th CD
4. 2nd CD (if we get a candidate like Jody Wagner)
5. 1st CD (Dems have a shot, either now or in November)
6. 5th CD (two excellent Dem's so far, but this is a really tough "red" district)

I know these poll results might not be reflective of reality, but I was just commenting on how we, as a collective, found the 5th District the third most interesting race - ahead of other potential pickups.

I am not sure how "red" this district is, compared to how much Goode is entrenched here.  This district loved his father, the Commonwealth Attorney, and he has strong name recognition.  But, this district was won by Govs. Warner and Kaine, wasn't it?  Especially with Warner on this ticket again, a good Democratic candidate can do great things.  And, I think we have good candidates, and Perriello's fundraising abilities are a godsend.

bright blue here in C'ville, fairly blue in Albemarle Co. but then it goes downhill when we get into Virgil's hometown, southside and beyond. Both of the dems are good men, as is Al Weed so I am hoping we can get it done this time. Unfortunately folks love their Virgil even though he is an embarrassment to the 5th and to the state. The MZM scandal should have been reported much better by the local papers but the paper here-the Daily Regress-is very conservative. I think what the candidate, whoever it will be, needs to bring up Virgil's poor record and the fact that he doesn't really DO anything for his district. And the fact that he is a racist but of course the dems would be shouted down by the rethugs if they even brought that up. I'm all for clean politics as I think most Virginians are but playng nice isn't going to get this seat-or in the 11th either unfortunately.

1. Senate (90% chance we win)
2. 11th (50% chance, 80% if Davis retires)
3. 2nd (45% chance, 60% if Wagner gets in)
4. 10th (40% chance)
5. 5th (25% chance)
6. 1st (20% chance)

Sorry, Lowell, but I think Thelma Drake is FAR more vulnerable in the Second than Wolf is in the Tenth.  I just think Wolf is so entrenched in incumbency that there really is little chance on knocking him off before retirement.  Just look at last year.  Feder ran a great campaign in a very good year for Democrats, and she couldn't get within 10%.  I just am not sure the tenth is there yet.

We had the Second.  Kellam was up nine points.  And he blew it.  He should be Congressman right now.  Instead, he'll have to fight just to keep his job as commissioner.  Damn shame.  Still, if Wagner gets in, we really have a shot at taking that seat back.  Thelma, unlike Wolf, is generally unpopular.  Also, Thelma drained her funds last year against Kellam, now having little money.  And most importantly, Democrats made big gains at the Beach.  This district is ripe for the picking if we can get a moderate Warner-Kaine Democrat to run (both are still well liked there).  

Last time, we supposedly had the "perfect candidate" in Phil Kellam.  I was told that over and over again, especially when David Ashe was persuaded not to run.  In the end, we lost anyway.  So, maybe Jody Wagner is the REAL "perfect candidate," but I guess I'll just believe it when I see it.  But I don't mean to be negative here, I definitely think we can win the 2nd...and the 10th as well. :)

His campaign, however, was far from perfect.  Had his campaign even been competent (not spectacular, just COMPETETENT), he'd be a Congressman today.

...remember what Jim Webb said about "the fish rots from the head down?"  A more polite way to say it is that "the buck stops here."  In other words, I think a campaign reflects the candidate.

No offense to my buddy Phil but he was only the "perfect candidate" on paper.

Lots of people look good on paper, but when it comes down to it, they come up short for whatever reason.  Part of it is running an effective campaign, as Ralph Northam, Chap Petersen, and several others did this year.  That's part of politics, and you're not a "perfect" candidate if you can't do it.

and this applies to 11th as well.  One reason for the entrenchment of Wolf (and of Davis) is that they were in the majority.  With no prospect of the Republicans taking back the House, a competent Democrat can make an argument that s/he will be able to do more for the District.  And with Mark Warner maximizing Democratic turnout in the state, that givs an added boost to downballot democrats, unless you have a very popular Republican presidential candidate against a Democrat who does not play well here, which at worst would neutralize the Mark Warner effect.  And right now other than McCain it is hard to see a Republican presidential hopeful who would play all that well in Virginia, not even Huckabee, whom I think may well be their nominee.

And all of this assumes that Wolf (or Davis) runs again -  knowing one will be in the minority can be quite discouraging.  remember, Wolf had more than a dozen years in the minority before 1994 (and Davis has just gotten his first taste of life as a minority Rep and it seems to have a sour aftertaste for him).

Just saying . . .

Don't forget, the question was about which race was most "interesting".  

Where can you find a more interesting (potential) cast of characters than Tom Davis (and his wife), Leslie Byrne (and her hubby), Gerry Connolly, Andy Hurst, etc.?  Combined with the subplot of this last Republican bastion of Fairfax County poised to go Democratic, it's going to take an enormous tub of popcorn to get through this race...