What are the partisan dynamics of this district?  

According to Ben, it's a Bush/Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell/Allen/Yes district.   However:

The likely Democratic candidate in this special election is Delegate Joe Johnson.  Joe is one of only two House Democrats left in a straight Republican voting district at the statewide level, and that seat takes up about 40% of this Senate District.  Joe has all of Bristol, and parts of Washington and Smyth counties.  He is a very strong candidate because he is likely to carry outright his House district- and by a large margin, providing a Democratic base in a district that otherwise doesn't have one.

I agree that Joe Johnson could turn this district Blue.  I don't think that we would have any trouble holding on to this House seat either.  My only concern is that Delegate Johnson has had some health problems lately and I think that the voters would need re-assurance that these have resolved before actively supporting him.

Also, don't believe every thing Terry Kilgore says about not running.  He may just be testing the water, seeing what other Republicans might be interested.  My guess is that Terry would rather stay in the House as a senior member of the majority than run in a very uncertain Senate race to end up as a low ranking member of the minority, but you can never underestimate the "hutspah" (excuse my spelling but not knowing hebrew I guessed at it.) of the Kilgores.

You know this may make it possible to pick up another HOD seat even if Kilgore doesn't run.  Does anybody know if Carrico lives in the 40th?  I've heard that he has higher ambitions.

So much for next year being an easy one in Scott County.

No, Carrico lives just east of Wampler's District in Grayson County. (about two miles down the road from my house)  He is in Roscoe Reynold's District. (the 20th)

As far as Grayson County is concerned, west of Independence is Wampler's, and east of Independence, including Independece, is Roscoe's.  

 

So, Is Terry Kilgore the only Republican Delegate in the 40th Senate District?
Bud Phillips represents the 2nd.  Dan Bolling has the third.
Joe Johnson has the fourth.  I guess part of the 5th is in the 40th District. But this gives me hope that we may be able to take the Kilgores down.  Also, it has been suggested to me that there might be some Lee County Republicans who are interested.

Anybody else heard anything?

the 40th includes all of HD-1, most of HD-4, and part of HD-5, and a tiny bit of HD-2.

What kind of a Democrat is Johnson? I guess I should say, how conservative is he, since it's SWVA and all.

A lot like Puckett and Reynolds.  I like him.