It's turning into a long line of Republicans jumping off the sinking ship these days. The latest is Trent Lott, leaving (with 5 years remaining on his term, no less!) to pursue a higher calling. Money. Lots of it. I can't say I'm surprised, especially coming from someone who thinks the country would have been better off if arch-segregationist Strom Thurmond, not Harry S. Truman, had been elected president in 1948. Whatever, good riddance.Now, here's even better news: this could be a serious Democratic pickup opportunity. At first glance, it seems absurd, but if Democrats get the right candidate -- former Attorney General Mike Moore is "wildly popular" -- it's actually a strong possibility. For more, see Chris Cillizza's analysis in the Washington Post. The bottom line is that, with Lott's announcement, possible U.S. Senate pickups for the Democrats in less than a year now include: Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine, Alaska, Kentucky and now possibly Mississippi. And the list keeps growing...
It appears that the following observation by Cillizza is more true now than ever:
It would be hard to blame Republican Senate campaign strategists if they spent the first 11 months of the 2008 cycle curled up in the fetal position.The year started badly -- 22 Republican seats up for reelection compared with just 12 for Democrats -- and went downhill from there.
It's no fun being a Republican these days, no fun at all.
8. Maine: This race continues to confound us. Is it a replay of the 2006 Rhode Island Senate race, where Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R), a moderate by any standard, is dragged to defeat simply because of the "R" by his name on the ballot? Or is it a mirror image of Sen. Susan Collins's (R) 2002 race, in which a much-hyped Democratic challenger failed to convince Maine voters that the incumbent is really more conservative than she says? We honestly don't know. Rep. Tom Allen is the best candidate Democrats could have fielded against Collins but has considerable ground to make up over the next year. Poll after poll shows Collins not just ahead by 20+ points but enjoying well over 50 percent support. There's no question her numbers will come down as the race engages and Allen seeks to tie President Bush's unpopularity and the war in Iraq around her campaign. But Collins is in as strong a shape as any northeastern incumbent could ask for one year out from Election Day. (Previous ranking: 7)
Its possible its a pickup in 2012, if the new (R) sucks, or something.
I was asuming federal law set the terms to replace a senator, and was thinking back to all the talk I heard when Larry Craig was supposed to retire.
My mistake!
=D