The SurveyUSA poll is out today and it's a STUNNER!
Tim Kaine comes out with his biggest poll lead of the election season, topping Kilgore by 9 points!
Yeah baby!
This poll represents the first time since August that results have been outside of the "margin of error" and represents a 19-point turnaround for Tim Kaine since June.
We have seen Jerry Kilgore foist possibly the sleaziest campaign of modern times on Virginians replete with lies, dirty tricks and even despicable "Hitler" ads. Tim Kaine has clearly proffered a positive vision for the future of the Commonwealth, and a clear record of achievement and fairness in his long successful career. As Virginians know more and more about Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore, they identify with the energy, strength and success of Tim Kaine more and more - the negativity and divisiveness of Jerry Kilgore less and less.
Regardless of this poll, we all know that this is still likely to be one of the closest elections in Virginia history. While the air war may have been won by Tim Kaine's positive progressivism, the ground war remains to be won tomorrow. Between now and 7 pm on November 8, we will be doing everything we can to make sure that Tim Kaine is elected. We will volunteer on the phones, in the neighborhoods, at the polls. We will fight them on the beaches. We will fight them in the cities. We will...ok, apologies to Winston Churchill!
In other words, if we all do everything we can, tomorrow night will mean victory for the next Governor of Virginia, Tim Kaine!
[UPDATE #1 (by Lowell): The full "crosstabs" are available here. They show Kaine leading by 14 points among women (55%-41%), 21 points among independent voters (57%-36%), and an amazing 46 points among self-described "moderates" (70%-24%). They also show Tim leading in every area of the state except for the Shenandoah. In Northeast and Southeast Virginia, Kaine's ahead by 35 points and 14 points, respectively. Wow!]
[UPDATE #2 (by Lowell): Do NOT get overconfident. Assume the race is tied and work accordingly. Also, keep in mind that we NEED a large margin of victory to frustrate whatever dirty tricks Scott Howell and the Republican minions have up their sleeves. Finally, remember that a large margin tomorrow means possible coattails for Leslie Byrne, Creigh Deeds, and our House of Delegates candidates. Victory by those people will make Tim Kaine's life a lot easier the next 4 years, and all OUR lives a lot better!]
[UPDATE #3 (by Lowell) Steal this, Scott Howell!!!]
[UPDATE #4 (By Josh) SurveyUSA has modified their results with the following:
UNUSUAL VOLATILITY IN VA AS VOTERS GO TO BED ON ELECTION EVE: Interviews in the Virginia governor?s race conducted by SurveyUSA tonight Monday 11/7 (but before President Bush appeared in Richmond) show a swing back towards Republican candidate Jerry Kilgore, causing SurveyUSA to now update its final projection in the Virginia Governor?s Contest. This morning, based on interviews conducted Friday, Saturday and Sunday (11/4/05 through 11/6/05), SurveyUSA released data that showed Democrat Tim Kaine 9 points ahead of Kilgore. However, because of intra-day volatility in that data, SurveyUSA continued to poll throughout the afternoon and evening today Monday 11/7. When interviews from the most recent 3 days ? Saturday, Sunday and today Monday ? are averaged, Kaine?s lead shrinks now to 5 points. When interviews from just the past two days ? Sunday and today Monday ? are averaged, the contest is closer yet. When interviews from Monday only are considered, the contest is tied, but the Margin of Sampling error from just the one day of interviewing is high enough, and the results aberrant enough, that SurveyUSA is uncomfortable reporting just Monday-only data. For the record, SurveyUSA goes into the clubhouse with its final projection (based on Saturday, Sunday and Monday polling): Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45%. A closer outcome still is possible.
While this is certainly a shift, Kaine 50%, Kilgore 45% just gives us that much more reason to fight our ground game tomorrow with everything we have!
Waldo has this to say about SurveyUSA's snafu:
In an related poll, 95% of Virginia pundits agree that Survey USA doesn?t know their ass from their elbow.
I wasn't polled, but would have gone with the majority on both.
And then this from elsewhere in the blogsphere:
So let's see about SUSA. They have projected all in one day, a big Kaine win, a narrow Kaine win, a tied race and a race with momentum breaking towards Kilgore. Talk about covering all your bets.