VA-01 What Will It Take To Win On December 11th?

By: Shawn
Published On: 11/18/2007 5:19:53 PM

Tuesday, December 11th voters in Virginia's 1st Congressional District will have an opportunity to send Democrat Philip Forgit to Congress.  What will it take to win?  Up to 90,269 Democratic voters willing to go to the polls.  Where will they come from?  All across the District from cities and counties capable of turning out Democrats in those numbers.  Here's my breakdown of the winning Democratic turnout:

  Caroline  1,473 votes
  Essex  990 votes
  Faquier  3,717
  Fredericksburg  2,526 votes
  Gloucester  3,381 votes
  Hampton  5,003 votes
  James City-County 10,215 votes
  King & Queen  797 votes
  King George  2,017 votes
  King William  1,467 votes
  Lancaster  2,784 votes
  Mathews  2,579 votes
  Middlesex  1,308 votes
  Newport News  9,421 votes
  Northumberland  2,551 votes
  Poquoson  1,055 votes
  Prince William  5,001 votes
  Richmond County  1,558 votes
  Spotsylvania  8,719 votes
  Stafford  11,367 votes
  Westmoreland  2,797 votes
  Williamsburg  2,146 votes
  York County  7,394 votes

Originally posted on VirginiaDem.org

 

Comments



To get to that total (CADeminVA - 11/19/2007 4:13:43 PM)
The DCCC is going to have to step up big time and Phil Forgit has got to run against George Bush, not Rob Wittman. That means he's got to on TV ASAP, like next week at the latest.

Phil came to Stafford on Saturday and did some needed fence-mending. He's got the Stafford Democrats in his corner, he's setting up a local HQ (5 minutes from my house, which is great) and I think there's a lot of enthusiasm considering we're still tired from two weeks ago.

Stafford delivered around 17,000 votes for Jim Webb. Everything I've heard so far is that this figures to be a 12-13% turnout election at best. What are you projecting total turnout to be?



Shawn's figures (Susan Mariner - 11/19/2007 4:34:16 PM)
Based on the number of registered voters listed on the State Board of Elections website, Shawn's figures are based on about 40% turnout. 

Thanks for your help CADeminVA!  Phil Forgit is a really great guy and would be great in Congress. 

Everybody... Please agree to donate a minimum of one day's effort to this race.  In order to win, Phil's going to need to get folks who are outside of the 1st to help him!!!

Also everybody please start contacting anyone you know who lives in the 1st district who would consider voting for a Democrat and ask them to come out for Phil on December 11th.  We know we can win this race but only if everyone who wants to see it happen works to make it happen.

Phil's working smart and he's working tirelessly.  Let's help him get over the top! 



Hi Susan (Shawn - 11/19/2007 7:49:48 PM)
I knew the DNC's 50 state folks would be helping out when I got a call from Chairman Dean ... with VAN fully operational ... and all the great work on campaigns this past season ... special elections like this one become all about turning out known Democrats ... and thanks in part to the 50 state strategy and you folks on the ground Phil Forgit should have a real opportunity to win December 11th ... keep the faith and keep moving Democrats to the voting booth!

 



Volunteer Assistance Offered (cycle12 - 11/21/2007 10:16:51 AM)
Hi, Susan; good to hear from you again and glad to have read your message here! 

I contacted Phil Forgit's campaign a few days ago and am willing to spend some volunteer time in your area over the next few weeks working toward his election on December 11.

Please contact me at your earliest convenience so we can discuss how I can best assist in Phil's campaign.

Thanks!

Steve McGraw



Wonderful! (Susan Mariner - 11/21/2007 11:53:43 AM)
Thanks Steve!

Will do.

And congratulations on your recent victory!  Sounds as if you really took advantage of the targeting provided by the DPVA in the VAN. 

The updated technology, with increasingly accurate information and excellent targeting in it, makes the tried and true techniques of phone calling and door knocking much more efficient. 

We really saw the power of that combination here in Hampton Roads. 

In order to really progress in building the party on the local level, which is the number one goal of the DPVA and the DNC, we will need our Democratic committees and activists to be an integral part of continually updating the database by knocking on doors in their neighborhoods throughout the year.  That is the future of our party, and the direction we are heading in here in Virginia and throughout the country. 

In the words of DNC Chairman Howard Dean, "Election by election, state by state, precinct by precinct, door by door, vote by vote... we're going to lift our Party up and take this country back for the people who built it."

So thank you for your willingness to lead in that effort in your area and in the 1st CD, which is a long way away from the 9th!!!  Can't wait to see you again, Steve!

My best,

Susan

 



My concern is turning out Democrats (Shawn - 11/19/2007 4:37:34 PM)
The numbers above are what each committee in the 1st are capable of reasonably turning out on December 11th if they do the work ... yes the DCCC, DPVA, etc have to step up  and help Phil's campaign ... and some committees will do better than others but each are able to get to the number of voters indicated ... these are not "pipe-dream" numbers but "shoot-for" numbers and turnout overall would then need to exceed 40% for Wittman to have a chance ...

Kerry/Edwards got 122,771 votes in VA-01 in 2004

 



Shawn, You're absolutely right (Dianne - 11/19/2007 11:31:13 PM)
If the committees all commit to calling Democrats now, there's a strong possibility of winning this.  I'll be calling for Phil Forgit as soon as I get a list of names for my precinct from the local committee.  This is what should be done all year long, contacting voters and establishing the BASE!!!

NC's starting work now on establishing their base for 2008 (a year ahead) with a project just announced called:  Constructing Victory: Do-It-Yourself Democracy 2008.  They describe the project in their pledge and on their sign up page: 

"I want to take my country back. I pledge to put my boots on and do my part. I will contact 25 voters in my neighborhood at least 3 times between now and Election Day 2008. I will also work to find more Democrats to join the Crew."

Virginia Dems needs to work on establishing their base and keeping in constant contact with them.... else we just keep starting over with every campaign that comes along.



Newport News Dem Committee... (lgb30856 - 11/19/2007 5:34:45 PM)
Since we have NO meetings til the rorganization meeting on Dec 10, I am going to call my precinct people and have them do the same model for  the 1st district congressional precincts. It is gonna be tough. Everyone is exhausted from the 1st district senate race.
But we will do what we can. Everyone must do what they can.
I think we have a great candidate.


Exhaustion (Susan Mariner - 11/19/2007 7:12:32 PM)
I'm sure you, in particular, are exhausted from John Miller's winning race.  We are all blessed by how much time and energy you gave to that effort.

THANK YOU!



There should be at least one FRONT PAGE story about Forgit.... (Dianne - 11/19/2007 11:34:34 PM)
every day until the election!  We owe it to him.


What's the DCCC doing? (Lowell - 11/22/2007 8:55:38 AM)
I haven't heard a word. 


The DNC folks.. (lgb30856 - 11/19/2007 11:56:34 PM)
without pointing out the people from the 50 state strategy, well you know who you are. Well you have made a difference.
You have become the catalyst for change.
Thanks to you and Howard Dean and your hard work.
You are helping us take our country back, one election at a time.


Howard Dean was right that the grassroots... (Dianne - 11/20/2007 10:21:43 AM)
will change the Democratic Party.  To those Dems who gave him a hard time (Mr. Emanual) about putting money into the strategy, I hope you realize that the Democratic Party is about the people and not just about the candidates.  The 50 State Strategy will get us more votes, the best candidates, and the peace of mind that we are all included.


Catalyst for Change That's Correct! (Shawn - 11/20/2007 4:41:22 PM)
50StateStrategyOrganizersEmailTopShadow

Learn more about the 50 State Strategy and how Democrats can and will win in every state, every county, and every precinct.



90,000 Votes Is A Pipe Dream (Flipper - 11/21/2007 5:33:11 AM)
There is NO WAY Phil is going to get 90,000 Dems to vote in this race TWO WEEKS before Christmas - not even in a perfect world. 

And to be frank, local committees are just too weak in most of these areas to provide any type of substantial GOTV efforts.

How about the DPVA?  LOL!  How can we expect them to deliver?  For the most part they are a collection of political hacks who have been given jobs due to their  loyalty to Kaine rather than their political skills.

So, as one of the writers suggests in their comment above- we are at the mercy of the DCCC.

In an election like this in particular, we need local committees with a GOTV plan that has been established.  We need an absentee ballot program, preferably run by the DPVA.  We need tons of phone calls made.  But most of this will not happen because of weaknesses throughour our party.

Why doesn't the DPVA set up a system which could be run through their website so all DEMS statewide could be calling into this district for GOTV efforts?  It's a simple system to set up.  Volunteers can sign up on the website and register.  Once registered, a block of numbers are assigned to a volunteer within the website and the responses the volunteer receives can be recorded right on the website.  Then on election day, those voters ID'd can be called by volunteers to get them out to vote.  Volunteers can make calls directly from their home, saving tons of money for a camapign or joint campaign.

But it seems the DPVA has no vision on how to win elections and if we really want to become a blue state, a vision has to be developed.  How do we do that? 

A state party chair is needed with REAL experience on how to develope an infrastructure from the grass roots up.  Having a legislator as party chair does not work.  They are more interested in protecting their own interests and getting their buds reelected in the legislature rather than building the party. 

The state central committee has to have some back bone and not allow a future Dem governor to appoint the exec director of the DPVA - that is how we keep coming up with political hacks in these positions.  The only interests they have are the governors and most do not have the experience for the jobs they hold. And then when the governors term is over, they all leave and the next group of political hacks are brought in.  All of this leaves party building as a third or fourth priority.

We have to stop treating our leaders like celebrities and give them everything they want if we really want to build a party structure that can actually deliver results.  And we have to do it soon and stop relying on groups like the DCCC to deliver. A state party needs to be free of any ties to our elected officials if we really want to build this party from the bottom up and turn this state blue.  It sems like we are all waiting for the population of NOVA to swell another 30% to turn this state blue rather than being proactive. 

But I guess a lot of what I have written are pipe dreams too.



Flipper, you took the words right out of my mouth!!! (Dianne - 11/21/2007 2:45:38 PM)
And I'm happy someone besides me has the fortitude to speak about improving the DPVA.  You've correctly identified what I've seen happen at the DPVA.  One example (that I usually complain about) is the lack of communication from the "new" Communications Director and others.  As I've said in other RK posts, Jerry Meek, the NC Democratic Party Chair, writes and sends a once a week newsletter to anyone who signs up to receive it.  To date, I could count on one hand the number of e-mails that I've received messages from the VA Communications Chair or Exec. Director or Party Chair!!! Why can't someone in Richmond take the time to send out an e-mail newsletter???  It doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to devise one.  For some reason there seems to be a type of Democratic "elitism" in many parts of Virginia and the DPVA that I don't see in NC. That's just one example. 

And I agree that many committees BELONG TO CANDIDATES (and/or celebrities) and those candidates direct what gets done (for their re-election)in the committee!!!

Committees still have websites that are pitiful and the DPVA should have helped in that area a LONG TIME AGO. 

The "celebrities" need us more than we need them.  When they realize that, maybe things will change. 

DPVA:

SEND US DEMOCRATS OUT HERE A NEWSLETTER TO TELL US WHAT IS GOING ON.  WE HAVE AN ELECTION HERE IN THE 1ST DISTRICT AND WE'VE YET TO HEAR FROM YOU!!!!!!!!!!  ANYBODY HOME THERE???????



Flipper is Right, But (Galenbrux - 11/21/2007 5:26:54 PM)
Flipper is exactly right that the DPVA is top heavy in politicos with a weak infrastructure.

It's always been that winning an election in Virginia is mostly up to the individual campaigns. Democratic candidates shouldn't believe that the Party can do much to help them win a race.

But, the Republican Party of Virginia ain't in much better shape. In addition to being structurally weak, they are splintered between the moderates and extremists.

Fogit better put his efforts into organizing as much as he can.

Shawn has the right idea. He has a lot of skills in grassroots organizing, but this time the organizing would have a goal and a purpose.



Good Comments.. (lgb30856 - 11/21/2007 12:03:01 PM)
I for one want a local committee to have some control over the GOTV. We have very little.
You have some good points.


Why isn't this diary on the front page? (thegools - 11/22/2007 1:32:14 AM)
I for one think that some very important comments have been made here.  Especially the ones regarding "GOTV" efforts (or lack thereof in some places).


I agree this should be front paged (Dianne - 11/22/2007 8:36:23 AM)
I'd like to reiterate a point:  The DPVA has my e-mail address and knows that I live in the 1st District, yet I have not received one message/notification of Phil Forgit's campaign (don't give me the excuse that they've posted it on their website...they should be coming to the voters). 

I will be calling my precinct's voters from my home for Forgit. I don't belong to the local committee but am willing to work hard for Democrats.  So why doesn't the DPVA feel the same way? 

That the DPVA doesn't feel it important enough to notify all it's constituency in the 1st District to get out the vote for a Democrat running for US Representative (when it's so important politically ... Virginia is trying to turn blue), is nothing other than shameful and disgraceful.  And don't give me the excuse that things are going on in the background that we don't see. 

When the DPVA, itself, participates in the actual spirit and method of grassroots organizing, only then will Virginia truly have a chance to turn rightfully blue.  They have the money to help the committees improve themselves.  They have the staff to communicate to all the voters.  Now do it. 

As to GOTV, I've been taught from serious campaign managers and read a copious number of books on winning campaigns and the lesson all comes down to identifying Democrats early and calling them repeatedly to keep in contact and to make sure they come out to vote.  If there's an election in November, then voter identification should begin in January.  But what I see year after year is a last minute scramble to get a list of voters to call to try to convince them to vote for a particular candidate not the party.  That is a serious mistake. 

May we hear from the Chair of the DPVA, the Communications Chair, the Executive Director?



I forgot to include this in my comment (Dianne - 11/22/2007 8:41:30 AM)
Susan Mariner wrote this:  "Everybody... Please agree to donate a minimum of one day's effort to this race.  In order to win, Phil's going to need to get folks who are outside of the 1st to help him!!!" 

It is a very legitimate and very urgent request. Thank you Susan. But where is it?  Buried as a comment in an RK diary.  Richmond should have gotten that message out long ago.