"His chances are pretty good, right?"

By: legacyofmarshall
Published On: 11/17/2007 5:21:07 PM

I canvassed for Phil Forgit in Williamsburg this morning, and the response was better than I could have hoped for.  Granted, Williamsburg is one of the more liberal sections of the First Congressional District, but I never could have foreseen the reaction today.  Of the dozens of voters I met, all had heard of the special election, nobody supported Wittman, and most importantly, they were hopeful.
Folks at the doors thanked me for walking for Mr. Forgit and gave signs of encouraging optimism.  The title of the article refers to a phrase I heard more than a few times today.  Not a single resident reflected the opinion I'm hearing from Washington that the special election is a shoe-in for the Republican.  Rather, they reflected the feeling all over Williamsburg, that with hard work, the Democrat can win.

Washington or Williamsburg, which do you believe, and more importantly, which get to choose the next Representative from Virginia's First Congressional District?

In all honesty, I'm not precisely as optimistic as the cheery Democrats I met today.  It's hard to say that Phil Forgit's chances are 'good.'  His chance to win is there, but it's not 'good' until he grabs it and takes full advantage of this astounding opportunity.  Democrats are more energized, Republicans are unpopular, and their nominee does not excite the base.  In 2006 we in the First District had a half-hearted candidate running against a popular incumbent with a very polarizing, divisive, and close Senate race on the forefront of all voters' minds.  Most residents of the First turned out for Allen, and they carried with them their vote for Jo Ann Davis.  Even a few Webb Democrats supported her.  That will not happen this December.

Let's be realistic, Republicans will not turn out in droves.  Allen was their hero last year.  Who will come to Wittman's rescue now, the next Senator from the Commonwealth James S. Gilmore?  I find that somewhat hard to believe, and I don't think it will work as well as the Democrats' campaigner-in-chief Governor Mark R. Warner.

This election is ours for the taking.  Let's have some fun and kick some tail.

Comments



Campaign goals (Ron1 - 11/17/2007 10:08:51 PM)
I'm going to do some phone-banking and perhaps canvassing from NoVa for Phil and the 1st district Dems in the upcoming weeks -- it won't be tons because of work/travel issues, but I hope to contribute a little towards a potential win, and Phil seems like someone that could do some good work in the House.

What I would like to see is for Phil and his campaign leadership to figure out what the metrics of victory are -- how many doors do we need to knock on, how many calls do we need to make, how many votes do we need to win, and where are the votes that we think we need to win? It seems to me that the untapped potential of the netroots is to connect advocacy and activism to grassroots action (MoveOn already does some of this).

What are the metrics for success? If we don't know, we can't recruit the manpower to achieve them.



Voters in the 1st only have one chance (John Carter - 11/17/2007 11:27:36 PM)
this year to send a message to Washington.  It will be a year before they get their next chance.