I almost always find Stratfor to provide thought-provoking analysis of international events. A few days ago, I received their analysis, "Pakistan and its Army," and I thought it was excellent. Here are a few highlights.*"Whether Musharraf himself survives is not a historically significant issue. What is significant is whether Pakistan will fall into internal chaos or civil war, or fragment into smaller states."
*"Pakistan...is a compendium of divisions. The British withdrawal created a state called Pakistan, but no nation by that name. What bound its residents together was the Muslim faith -- albeit one that had many forms."
*"...if Pakistan was a state trying to create a nation, then the primary instrument of the state was the army."
*"As long as the army remained united and loyal to the concept of Pakistan, the centrifugal forces could not tear the country apart."
*"Pakistan is a country that not only is deeply divided, but also has the real capacity to tear itself apart. It is losing control of the mountainous regions to the indigenous tribes. The army is the only institution that transcends all of these ethnic differences and has the potential to restore order in the mountain regions and maintain state control elsewhere."
*"In simple terms, the real question is this: Will the army split? Put more broadly, will some generals simply stop taking orders from Pakistan's General Headquarters and side with the Islamists? Will others side with Bhutto? Will ethnic disagreements run so deep that the Indus River Valley becomes the arena for a civil war? That is what instability in Pakistan would look like. It is not a question of civilian institutions, elections or any of the things we associate with civil society. The key question on Pakistan is whether the army stays united."
*"In Pakistan, the fundamental issue is the unity of the army."
So there you have it: the key thing to watch in (nuclear-armed) Pakistan over the coming weeks is the army. If it splinters, watch out! For more of what's at stake, see here.
But that may be all over now. And it does matter to Virginia and the entire United States. The administration is demanding an immediate election and that amounts to handing the country over to extremists (if not at the moment, then down the road).
To this extent StratFor is correct: only the army can maintain a semblence of order and unity. It is the most democratic institution remaining. An election will lead to the elimination of military officers who at one time understood and respected democracy. It will lead to a nuclear armed extremist adversary. I hope Musharraf is destroying the weapons as you read this.