1. In elections, political communication isn't so much about being right on the majority of issues as it is about defining what the election is about. The numbers from a poll like this aren't so much a reflection of how the people feel by themselves as much as it is a reflection of what message is grabbing the voting public and defining the election for them.2. The surge of importance people are placing on immigration is therefore a result of how much time the GOP is spending talking about that issue. Based on this poll, it's apparent that there has been measurable success on the part of the GOP to define the election as being about illegal immigration issues in Northern Virginia.
3. However, despite this success, there is reason to believe that the RPV's efforts have, indeed, failed. While a significant number of people think that illegal immigration is the 1st or 2nd most important issue in the November 2007 election, more than half of people polled (52%) still listed transportation as the 1st or 2nd most important issue. The composite of people who listed illegal immigration as their 1st or 2nd issue is outweighed by the number of people who listed transportation as their #1 issue alone (31% illegal immigration 1st or 2nd, compared to 38% of people who saw transportation as the most important issue this November). This is a very good sign for Democrats that likely voters this November are still focused on the transportation package passed by the General Assembly this year, including the abuser fees (which voters disapprove of by 2:1 margins).
4. While the Washington Post points out that more than 70% of likely voters said that a candidate's position on illegal immigration would be "extremely important" or "very important" when deciding who to vote for, that number isn't particularly revealing. Why? Because more than 70% of voters responded "extremely" or "very" important about ALL issues raised in the survey, including the economy (84%), taxes (79%), illegal immigration (74%) and transportation (70%). Obviously, there are issues on voters' minds as salient or more so than illegal immigration.5. Finally, as the Washington Post points out, while Republican and Independent participants were more concerned about illegal immigration than Democrats, a plurality of respondents (41%-33%) said that Democrats -- not Republicans -- would do a better job handling illegal immigration issues. And 50% of likely voters said that they would rather see the Democrats in control of the General Assembly next year, as opposed to 42% Republicans. These numbers are very positive for Democrats, and in spite of measurable (but limited) success by the GOP to define the election in terms of a vote on illegal immigration.
Final Thoughts: The battle for the General Assembly in two weeks is not a single statewide campaign, but a series of individual races. Virginia Democrats should continue fighting energetically during these last two weeks to keep the focus of the election on the issues we can win on while working to turn out our supporters. In the meantime, Democrats watching competitive NOVA races can take heart in knowing that while the GOP messaging machine on illegal immigration has certainly been effective, there isn't yet necessarily any reason to believe they've done it successfully enough to turn the tide and retain control of both chambers of the General Assembly.
When all is said and done, a very plausible case can be made that a small number of the people who say that illegal immigration is their number one priority and they feel the Republicans will take more action on the issue, will still vote for Democrats. The reason being that they understand the game the Republicans are playing and that the "action" that the republicans take will be nothing more than political theatre. Just as it was with the Republicans when it came to transportation.
There is no issue that is cutting for the Democrats that a similiar argument could be made. In other words, voters who agree with the Democratic agenda have no plausible reason to vote Republican. We have them locked up - we just have to get them to the polls.