He knows he's not a lock for re-election next year with a well-funded and well-known challenger. Not to mention the fact that he'll have Mark Warner and a Dem presidential nominee on the ballot, who'll both easily carry the district.
He knows the GOP probably won't regain a majority in the House after next year. The peak of his influence on the Hill has come and gone.
And why would he want to do his party any favors by running for re-election? He knows they screwed him by going with a nominating convention over a primary.
When Jeannemarie Devil Lice Davis loses to Chap next month, that'll be the nail in the coffin.
The Republicans are going to have 190 or fewer seats in the House, perhaps 45 Senators (but I think many fewer, perhaps even fewer than 40), and an unfriendly ear in the White House. If he really wants to cash in, he may have to try and hang around until there is someone he can actually still "influence."
Now, I'm not naive, and I realize that there are plenty of corrupt Dem insiders/lobbyists as well, and that this is very clearly a bipartisan game, but I fail to see how Tom Davis is going to find much of a friendly ear anywhere. Hell, his own state party doesn't like him.
Poor Tom. I hope he runs and gets kicked to the curb for good.
The Virginia GOP hasn't forgotten the Paul Trible retreat of 1988, when he bailed on a re-election campaign against Chuck Robb, then tried for the GOP gov nod in 1989. He abandoned the party when it needed him to try to run in a race where the odds were better.
If Davis doesn't run for the Senate and opts for a re-election campaign, that is one thing.
If he bails all together, then the Ben Tribbett label for him will truly apply and will be applied if he tries to run for high office down the road.