Wow, what a difference a few weeks make! Not too long ago, right-wing Republicans thought they had this election locked up for Jerry Kilgore. They thought that Virginians would simply overlook or forgive Kilgore's evasions, negativity, nastiness and lack of ideas. They thought that Kilgore's "Hitler" ad would actually WORK, not backfire! They thought that Kilgore's anti-immigrant "nativism" (as the Washington Post called it in an editorial) would play in 21st century Virginia. Finally, they thought that Virginians didn't care one whit about the corrupt goings-on among Kilgore's buddies and soul mates in Washington, DC. Well, guess what? It looks like they were wrong on all counts. And today comes the latest evidence, in the form of a Roanoke College poll showing Tim Kaine surging ahead of Jerry Kilgore by 8 points, 44%-36%! [Note: the (margin of error is plus or minus 5 points.] In other words, according to this poll, Tim Kaine is leading Jerry Kilgore by between 3 and 13 points right now.
Interestingly, it now looks like this past Sunday's Washington Post poll, which showed Kaine ahead by 3 points, 47%-44%, was actually not "slanted against the Republican candidate in an effort to suppress Republican turnout," as the Kilgore campaign absurdly and pitifully claimed. In fact, if anything, the poll was slanted too heavily TOWARDS Jerry Kilgore, given today's Roanoke College poll results. Gee, I just can't wait to hear how the Kilgore campaign and his numerous apologists spin this one!
That's right, let's see how they spin findings like these from the Roanoke College poll:
*Kaine is leading by nearly 4:1 (62%-17%) among "moderates" and by 2:1 (37%-18%) among "independents"
*Kaine and Kilgore are TIED in Kilgore's home region of Southwest Virginia, while Kaine is actually LEADING by 5 points in the Valley region
*Mark Warner with a 72%% approval rating vs. George W. Bush's 38%!
Now, having said all this, I'm going to urge you all to stop celebrating and to just put this poll out of your minds. Just assume that Kaine and Kilgore are tied, in a dead heat, whatever you want to say. As the Kaine campaign says:
We must work tirelessly for the next seven days to make sure that every last Virginian who cares about creating a better, more stable future for our children goes to the polls and votes for Tim Kaine on Tuesday, November 8th.
We also need to rack up a big margin to help House of Delegates candidates like Bruce Roemmelt, Hilda Barg, Greg Werkheiser, Earnie Porta, David Bulova, David Poisson, and many others defeat their right-wing Republican opponents next Tuesday. So do not rest. Redouble your efforts. Call everyone you know and ask them to get out and vote one week from now. Here's the deal: the Roanoke College poll is wonderful, but just remember that there's only ONE POLL THAT COUNTS, and that's the one on November 8th.
[UPDATE: More details coming in from the poll. Leslie Byrne is leading Bill Bolling, 33%-32%, for Lt. Governor. Bob McDonnell (R) holds a 5-point lead (39%-34%) over Creigh Deeds (D) in the race for Attorney General. The poll was conducted by was conducted by The Center for Community Research at Roanoke College in Salem, VA between October 23 and October 30, 2005. The sample consisted of 407 likely voters in Virginia. ]