If Tom Davis is as great as he thinks he is, why did Andy win 44% of the vote on 1/10 of the coffers?  He's a fighter with a big heart and a strong work ethic.

I like Leslie Byrne a lot -- she's a great strong woman who isn't going to take anything and would work like hell for us -- but I truly don't think she could win against Davis.  She's lost several high-profile elections and I think she has that "also ran" aura now.  No offense, Leslie.  People love Tom Davis in my part of the district, which is in PWC.  So, you have to take that piece of data into consideration.

And -- the idea that Tom Davis thinks he could beat Jim Webb?  Bwa-hahahahahahahahahahaha!  Even Jim Gilmore beat him.  That's pretty bad.

Oh, and to answer the second question -- I really think Andy could win against Tom Davis if he ran a good race, with better funding. 

At a canvass meeting I learned of some rumors coming out  that there may be a planned draft John Warner campaign to run for Governor next time around and also some folks were talking about Davis as well depending on the results of GA over the years after many were upset with the non-primary and the Gilmore deal for Senate. Probably just rumors but interesting nonetheless. Do'nt see it happening but stranger things have happened.

Leslie Byrne has proven herself to be a potent opponent in her last two races. She defeated three others in a primary (including Chap Petersen) for the nomination for Lt. Governor, then captured 49% of the vote in the general election in 2005 - even after the Republicans branded her "liberal Leslie Byrne."

Leslie once held the seat Davis now has. She was elected in 1992 and lost in 1994 primarily because she voted for Pres. Clinton's economic plan - the one that produced the surpluses that George Bush burned through. In 1994 when Tom Davis ran against her, he was a popular local leader known as a moderate. All that was before he became just another doormat for Bush-Cheney.

Leslie almost pulled off a miracle in 2005 by coming so close to defeating Bolling. On her home turf, she will be unbeatable.

Gerry Connelly - from what I hear - has plenty of enemies in that district.

Leslie's the one!

Wouldn't stand an unreasonable chance against Tom Davis if it could raise $2 million and someone kept it watered.  Any of the candidates mentioned would likewise be competitive against Davis if they could put up that sort of fundraising effort.  Between Byrne, Denny and Hurst, my initial inclination would be to say that Byrne is most likely to raise that sort of money (but she never has been able to do it before).  Denny's fundraising ability is a relative unknown.  Hurst is a great guy but can't get it done as far as fundraising goes.

The big unknown for me is Connolly.  Connolly's fundraising isn't a matter of public record.  He could potentially be stronger than Byrne, and it would not surprise me to find out that he's stronger.

However, someone once told me that you should never take anything for granted in politics, especially voters.  While the district voted heavily for both Kaine and Webb, it has to be noted that Davis received more votes in VA11 last year than Webb did.  That means there were a hell of a lot of folks in the district who were perfectly willing to split their ticket and vote Webb/Davis, and it's not necessarily true by that extension that among the average voterr, Davis has not been as tainted by the anti-Bush sentiment that lead them to vote against Allen as he is among Dem bloggers online.  So while I am optimistic that a credible challenge will be mounted against Davis next year (perhaps by Connolly, maybe by Byrne if she kicks her game up a notch) it is entirely possible that while any Democrat could challenge him, not one might be able to beat him.

There's two different concepts at play here:  1) fundraising; and 2) fundraising against Tom Davis.  Raising money against Davis is extraordinarily hard, because he works to hard to not only get as much money as he can, but also to keep money from his opponents.  That's why Gerry and Leslie haven't (and can't) run against Tom.  A large part of the money they theoretically can raise running for office won't come to them if they're up against Tom.

Gerry took four years to raise $1 million for his run for Chair.  He couldn't raise $1 million to run against Tom if his life depended on it.  Why?  The same guys who will throw him $25k for Chair (NoVa business folks, developers, etc.) won't give him a nickel against Tom. 

There's only three ways big money can be raised against Tom:  1) DCCC money; 2) self-funding; and 3) out of district money.  The DCCC hasn't shown any inclination to invest heavily against Tom (and after investing in Feder and flopping, will be gun-shy in NoVa against an incumbent).  And Gerry and Leslie have no chance at 2) or 3).  Hurst probably has the best shot at getting out of district money (and likely DCCC money as well).

If Davis's alleged prevention of opponents getting fundin can be carefully documented and written about in detail - then wether illegal or not - it could make for some interesting campaign news, editorials, and may help defray some of Davis's hidden advantages...  for any opponent.

The business community knows that one of two things will happen in 2008, either Gerry Connolly will be elected to Congress, or Connolly will not be elected and will still be Chair of the Board of Supervisors. There is no possibility that Davis could retaliate against Connolly's supporters.

We know Connolly's fundraising capability, he has been raising money for himself and fellow Democrats since 1995.

I think Davis will accept the offer from NFIB.

You're kidding, right?  Gerry's never raised money for other Democrats.  Showing up and making speeches at other people's events is not raising money unless you're a huge draw, and trust me, Gerry's no draw. . .

How about this -- if Gerry's raising money for fellow Democrats, he should spend it right now.  I know I'll be looking to see how much he gives out this month, particularly after he solicited and received contributions TO HIS CAMPAIGN from the Governor's PAC and the state party.  Can you imagine?!?  This year?!?

And you do understand that Connolly took four years to raise a million dollars, with no limitation on who could contribute (and how much) to his campaign.  Tom Davis raised a million dollars in one quarter in this cycle, with the draconian federal restrictions on his fundraising.

And if you think Tom can't retaliate against a NoVa business person who contributes against him, you're being very naive.  Gerry can impact developers, who are hurting now anyway.  But federal contractors and larger businesses don't care much about what Gerry thinks, compared to what Tom thinks (and does). 

gives some of his $1 million to Democrats this year.  So far, he's given almost nothing, despite holding a huge lead over Gary Baise, despite the fact that he fully intends to run for Congress if Tom Davis vacates the 11th district seat, and despite the fact that he can't transfer any of that million bucks to a federal race.  So, let's see, how about:

*$100,000 to Janet Oleszek
*$100,000 to Chap Petersen
*$100,000 to George Barker
*$50,000 to Bruce Roemmelt
*$50,000 to Rex Simmons
*$50,000 to Jay Donahue
*$50,000 to Margi Vanderhye

That would still leave Connolly with $500,000 to either spend against Gary Baise, give to more Democratic candidates, or use to bolster his own name recognition and "positives" for his Congressional run next year.  Is there any good reason, besides the specter of "Gary Baise dumping millions of dollars of his own money at the last minute," to keep this from happening?  I can't think of one, can you?

Andy can't raise big bucks? Don't count on it. Andy's lack of finances was ONLY because he refused to take PAC money. You have NO idea of the money Andy refused. If he runs again, I truly hope he understands he cannot do that. He has strong feelings about the ills of PAC money. I respect him for that, but he needs to get elected and then work to change the system.
Andy is a partner in one of 50 largest law firms in the world...think maybe he could tap into that?  I asked him to do that....I was told no....lawyers have their own agenda too.  If Andy has one fault, it is he is too honest and pure.  Sadly,I sometimes question whether there is a place in politics for that kind of person.

If you really believe in yourself and your candidacy, if you really think you're the best person to take on the pressing issues of the day, you shouldn't feel dishonest about asking people to make a financial contribution to a good cause.  Andy's problem is not that he's too honest and pure--it's either that Andy doesn't believe in Andy, or Andy is afraid of being told no.

Dogwood...you have no idea what you are talking about..Andy didn't have to ask...those checks arrived and he sent then back..with a thank you, but I am not taking PAC money  Ever see two young men cry...I sure did! Both James and Donald were great guys who worked on Andy's campaign.
They knew what could be done with those dollars. They knew it would provide more of an opportunity to "educate" the voters...Andy would not do it. 

Davis's cronies made calls during the last Congressional race and told people not to donate to his opponent.  He probably does it for JDD's races, too.  It's done by phone, so there's no record.  But Davis makes sure it gets done.  He worked closely with Jack Abramoff and Tom "The Hammer" Delay so he perfected a few heavy-handed tricks.

I remember one commenter in 2005-06 said he went to visit Davis as his constituent, and Davis had known that he had donated $50 to Davis's opponent in the previous election.  It came up I think when people were commenting on how Davis yelled at mayor Earnie Porta for donating to Hurst, and Davis threatened to withhold money from Occoquan.  Davis brain is a steel trap for baseball statistics and campaign money.