That's an impressive showing for the Feder camp.

So, this obviously begs the question, is Wolf just lazy, arrogant, complacent...or perhaps all three?

Seriously. Judy raised almost as much money as he did last quarter, they had to know this was coming. And yet, the Wolf camp comes in with a quarter tens of thousands of dollars less than the previous quarter?

Wolf went into the 2006 election with a $200k COH advantage over Feder. This time he's already down $60k COH.

I smell trouble for Wolf...

:)

If Frank might have finally had his fill.

I wonder if he's still got it in him?  How much longer will he want to be in Congress with his diminished influence and power in the minority (which seems likely not change again anytime soon)?

Is Frank ready to give it up?

If not, this is quite the math problem...

Judy raised almost three times as Wolf, who has 60,000 less cash on hand than Judy, compared to last cycle where he had 200,000 more. 

database.  What are you asking, exactly, I'm confused?

and the person just wants to see the numbers.

The last line appears to be the mathy word-problem one would have to solve in order to decipher the numbers for themselves.

Kinda funny, actually.

Anyway, the press release has a few of the numbers:

Third quarter Feder raised more than $223k to Wolf's $78k. That puts Feder's COH at $294k to Wolf's $230k. So not only did Feder raise three times more money than Wolf. She actually has $60k more on hand than he does.

The number from last cycle, $200k, was just offered up so that everyone could get a sense of how much trouble Wolf might actually be in for the 2008 cycle.

Wolf started the 2006 election cycle with a $200k COH advantage over Feder. And Feder only had ten months to raise money. This cycle she already has a $60k COH advantage on Wolf with more than a year to go in the race.

And for those who don't remember, Feder outraised Wolf every quarter last cycle. If that trend continues, Wolf will be at a money disadvantage relatively quickly becuase the Feder COH advantage will only increase with each cycle.

The Wolf campaign is well aware of Feder's fundraising prowess, and was well aware that they needed to step up this cycle or risk beign outraised by the challenger. Not only did they NOT beat Feder in fundraising, but they reported a dismal $78k (roughly $50k short of what he raised last quarter).

Which begs the question...are we going to see more of what we saw from the Wolf campaign last cycle? A tired, lazy, lackluster fundraising performance and tepid, johnny-come-lately style of campaigning?

Sure seems that way. What was it they called it last cycle, "stealth campaigning" or something like that?

Yeah, "here" is a small word, so the link was pretty subtle.  I missed it entirely. 

Thanks.  78K is not very good for an incumbent at all... Have there been any retirement rumors surrounding Wolf?  He is 68 Years old and has been in congress for over 26 years now.  A good chunk of his life to say the least. 

Also, does Drake have a top tier opponent in District-02?  She came off as vulnerable as Davis from the 2006 elections...

And is there a challenger to Davis?  If so I missed it.  Haven't been following Virginia enough apparently!

but we need one, badly.

As far as Wolf is concerned, what strikes me is the enormous difference in energy level between Judy Feder and him.  I mean, Wolf was probably a fine Congressman for many years, but now...he's been there a looooong time and seems to have kind of lost it.

Not only are there two Democratic challengers to Wolf's seat (there were none a few cycles ago), but now there is a Republican challenger for Wolf's seat.  I think that is at least as telling as the phenominal fund-raising by Judy Feder's campaign.

Wolf's time is definitely up.  Yay.

If Judy Feder owned King Solomon's mines, she still couldn't defeat Frank Wolf in the 10th Congressional District.

She is a liberal college professor, and she looks the part. While she will win the votes of main line Democrats in Fairfax County and Loudoun County, she will have difficulties in the remainder of the Tenth CD with the crucial bank of independents.

Her strength is in the Fairfax County part of the Tenth CD, but there aren't enough voters there. Loudoun County is trending toward Democrats, but there won't be enough Democratic leaning voters in Loudoun to deliver her a victory. Jim Webb barely won Loudoun with just over 50% of the vote. The rest of the 10th is Wolf country, and Judy shouldn't even waster her time and money there.

In other words, the voter data, demographics, and voting patterns say that Judy Feder can't beat Frank Wolf even if she out raised and outspent him 10 to one.

Just wait and see, 2008 is going to be a great year for Dems in Virginia!

There are thousands of new voters in the 10th every month, between kids turning 18 and people moving into the District, the demographics actually favor Judy.

And furthermore, if Webb won Loudoun with "only" 50% in 2006, and the trends are going Democratic, doesn't that point to the Democratic percentage in Loudoun only increasing between 2006 and 2008?

We'll see what happens in November this year...

By November 2008, there will be approximately 480,000 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District [my estimate].

If we assume a turnout of 70% in this presidential election, we can say that we'll see about 340,000 voters at the polls.

Let's see? Basic arithmetic says that to win a district wide race in the 10th, the candidate must get one half plus one vote, which comes out to 170,001 votes.

Now, can someone tell where Judy Feder will find 170,000 people in the 10th district who will vote for her?

There will only be about 85,000 registered voters [my estimate] in each of Fairfax County and Loudoun County.

and he didn't even compete.  Getting to 170,001 means that Judy needs to find another 14,260 votes, and that's not even counting the "blue" trend and the increased population in the 10th district since 2004.  Also, Judy will have more money this time around and Wolf has an even tougher record to defend.  We'll see what happens, but I'm optimistic not just about the 10th, but also the 11th, the 5th, the 2nd and possibly even the 1st.

Judy Feder is running for Congress against Frank Wolf. John Kerry was a presidential candidate. You've mixed up races, which is always a wrong headed way to look at voting behavior.

Even by your estimates, you've got the numbers totally wrong.

If we use your estimate of 480,000 voters in the 10th District by 2008, and we assume 70% turn out, you're way off.

Loudoun and Fairfax County (the portion that is in the 10th) account for roughly 50% of the vote in the district. Which means that roughly 170,000 votes come from Fairfax County and Loudoun County. Where on earth did you get only 85,000?

And this is all further complicated by the actual levels of turnout in each area. If Dems are fired up and go to the polls, and Republicans are sickened by the problems in their own party and stay home, the balance tips significantly. You could have loudoun and Fairfax pulling more than 50% of the vote.

Moreover, you're forgetting that roughly 3 or 4% of the vote every year goes to the random independent candidates who run each election. Those candidates almost uniformly pull votes from Wolf (they tend to be libertarian or very conservative...think Wilbur Wood from 2006) which means that Feder doesn't actually need 50% + 1. Depending on how much of the vote is pulled by the independent candidates, the winner could likely only need 47% of the vote to take the District.

No offense, but your analysis is a little simplistic.

You're talking nonsense or wishful thinking.

Again, instead arguing with me about my own estimates, tell me, in your opinion, where Judy Feder is going to get 170,000 or more votes that are needed to defeat Frank Wolf?

Let me ask a more pointed question: what policies are Judy Feder pushing to cause independent voters in the 10th to vote for her instead of Frank Wolf?

For instance, what is Judy Feder's position on the war in Iraq? I'd really like to know. I'll be damned if I knew her position on Iraq when she ran in 2006, and I think I keep up pretty well with things like that. Her mumbled position on this key issue may help explain in part why 20,000 voters for Jim Webb voted for Frank Wolf instead. My sneaking position is that Feder's position was identical to her good friend Hillary Clinton, who, at the time, supported the Iraq war.

 

Give me a break. I'm not talking nonsense, I've given you straight numbers and even written out the mathematical explanation. You're just pissed because your math is wrong.

Feder doesn't need 170,000 votes to beat Wolf. 3% of the vote every election goes to independent candidates. that means that, by your estimate of 340,000 voters, 10,200 of them will vote for someone other than Wolf or Feder.

That leaves 329,800 votes to be split between Feder and Wolf. The winner needs 164,901 votes to win the District.

If we use Feder's number from last time 41% of the vote, which is a relatively safe assumption, as a starting base line vote going into 2008, that means Feder starts with 139,400 votes. By your estimate, Feder needs 25,501 votes to beat Wolf. That's a far cry from having to pull 170,000 votes out of thin air as you make it sound.

Will 25000 more Dems than Republicans show up to vote in teh 10th District? Don't know, but it's not a crazy thought. Frank WOlf relies not just on independent voters but on some portion of Democrats who have been voting split ticket for a while (think Webb/Wolf voters). Given the problems in the GOP will some of those voters have finally reached their breaking point and choose not to split their vote? I don't know, but it's not a crazy thought. Given the growth in the District is it possible that several thousand (maybe even 10,000) Democrats have moved into the District who weren't there in 2006? I don't know, but it's not a crazy thought.

"what policies are Judy Feder pushing to cause independent voters in the 10th to vote for her instead of Frank Wolf?"

Um, that's an easy one, I can name six: Iraq, Stem cell, Pro-choice, Transportation (support for Tyson's Tunnel and smart growth), responsible energy policies, and affordable health care.

Six issues for which Judy Feder's policy positions are directly aligned with not only a majority of voters, but with independent voters specifally. And six issue on which Wolf's policies are in direct contradiction to his own consituents. Wolf supports continued presence of our troops in Iraq and a continuation of President Bush's failed policies in Iraq, opposed stem cell research, opposes Tyson's Tunnel and is in the pocket of big developers, is vehemently opposed to a woman's right to choose, and he has no position on health care.

To the contrary, Feder is for ending the war in Iraq, supports Tyson's Tunnel and smart growth policies, is pro-choice, supports stem cell research, has a responsible energy policy and has been an advocate for more affordable health care for 30 years.

Wolf is on the wrong side of all the issues that have caused independents all across the country turn their back on the Republican Party in poll after poll, what makes you think that Wolf can weather the storm?

For the record, Judy was against the war in Iraq in 2006. How you missed that if you do keep up on these things is beyond me...she beat the hell out of Frank Wolf repeatedly over the war in Iraq.

She hardly had a mumbled position. She was for a responsible withdrawal of troops from Iraq. And I'm quite certain Feder's campaign will spend plenty of time thinking about those 20,000 Webb/Wolf voters. If I were Team Wolf I'd be pretty damn worried they might just figure it out.

only it isn't quite right. Winners are often determined by a very small number of voters when you look at the actual numbers.

Wolf, for example, beat Feder by 16% in 2006, but that only amounts to 39,000 actual votes. And in order to win Judy wouldn't have had to have the whole 39,000 votes, just half the 39,000 +1 (which is 19,501). A task which could easily be accomplished if GOP turnout goes down and Dem turnout goes up. Something that is highly likely given the political environment.

And an actual real assessment of the voter data, the demographics and voting patterns make it perfectly clear that there multiiple strategies by which Feder could take the 10th district.

Don't believe the hype...Wolf is vulnerable, and Feder could take the district.

Feder cut his lead in half over previous challengers. All she needs to do is make up about 7% points (which amounts to about 15,000 voters) and she takes the 10th.

People forget how few voters it actually takes to get a win in a congressional race.

The 10th District is in play.

It is not quite right to say "beat Feder by 16% in 2006". Wolf beat Feder by more than 16 percent; he won 57% to 41%, which is by 16 percentage points.

I suspect this sentence was a throw-away: "People forget how few voters it actually takes to get a win in a congressional race." You really didn't mean that. See my Reply to Leesburg Tomorrow above.

Furthermore, you seem to have forgotten that 2008 is a presidential election year, during which voter turnout will be somewhere between 65% and 70%, thereby making Feder's job of defeating Wolf even more difficult.

Again, where will these extra votes for Feder come from? If you can solve that, then you might be able to make a reasonable argument for a Feder victory.

Indeed, if Feder can't discover these invisible voters, I'd have to question her basic decision to run against Wolf in the first place.

Having said that, there is only one reasonable strategy for Judy Feder to defeat Frank Wolf, barring his death the day before election day in November 2008. And, it doesn't involve raising and spending more money.

Seriously, you've got to be kidding.

"It is not quite right to say "beat Feder by 16% in 2006". Wolf beat Feder by more than 16 percent; he won 57% to 41%, which is by 16 percentage points."

Let's just clear this up, Wolf beat Feder by 39,000 votes. You've completely avoided dealing with the facts by quibling about semantics. Percent, percentage points...look, there was a 16 point spread between Feder and Wolf which equaled 39,000 votes when all was said and done.  My point still stands...she only needed 17,501 votes and the District would have been hers.

"I suspect this sentence was a throw-away: "People forget how few voters it actually takes to get a win in a congressional race." You really didn't mean that. See my Reply to Leesburg Tomorrow above."

Uh, no, it isn't a throw away. in 2006 the vote difference between Feder and Wolf was 39,000 votes. What part of that is confusing to you?

"Furthermore, you seem to have forgotten that 2008 is a presidential election year, during which voter turnout will be somewhere between 65% and 70%, thereby making Feder's job of defeating Wolf even more difficult."

Again, see my reply above. Your numbers about the District are completely off. And why would higher turn out make it harder for Feder to beat Wolf? There's no reason to believe higher turn out hurts Feder and helps Wolf, it solely depends on who turns out. and all things being equal, higher turn out just means overall numbers are higher, doesn't mean more votes for WOlf. Where would you even come up with such an idea?

And there are no "invisible votes" to discover. By your own estimates, and based on what we know about the demographics of the district, there are 170,000+ votes in Loudoun and Fairfax alone.

Arguing with you is like trying to squeeze oatmeal. You always talk off the point and counterattack my making oblique attacks.

Instead of arguing my estimates, let's see your estimates. Then, I'll be able whack you upside the head with your errors.

Anyway, you say "the vote difference between Feder and Wolf was 39,000 votes", which is correct. Your argument should have been that Feder lost because she failed to get more than half of the 39,000 to vote for her, which, by the way, approximates the 20,000 voters who voted for Jim Webb, for Frank Wolf, but not for Feder.

Logically, then, if you really want to help Feder, you should figure out why those 20,000 voters split their tickets. Perhaps, then, you'll quit arguing with me as if I were the enemy, and contribute something sensible to this discussion.

I haven't talked off the point at all. I've answered every question or concern you raise. You're numbers are wrong. Period. full stop.

I've given you all my estimates above. Feel free to whack away.

And yes, I'm sure Feder will look at those 20,000 Webb votes. If I were you, given the current political climate for the GOP and WOlf's indefensible stance on THE most salient issues for independents in 2008, I'd be pretty worried that those 20,000 voters might need much convincing to walk away from Wolf in 2008.

I will ask a different question....What if Feder does not win in the primary?  I thought her opponent looked pretty respectful.  Has he dropped out?