Election Predictions: Three Weeks to Go

By: Lowell
Published On: 10/15/2007 7:42:40 AM

Here are my fearless General Aseembly election predictions with three weeks to go. First, the State Senate:

Likely or Leaning Democratic Pickups
John Miller vs. Tricia Stall in the 1st district (90% chance of Dem. victory)
Chap Petersen vs. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis  in the 34th district (80%)
Ralph Northam vs. Nick Rerras in the 6th district (75%)
George Barker vs. Jay O'Brien in the 39th district (65%)

Tossups
Karen Schultz over Jill Holtzman Vogel in the 27th district (50%-55%)
Albert Pollard over Richard Stuart in the 28th district (50%)
Mike Breiner vs. Ralph Smith in the 22nd district (45%-50%)
Janet Oleszek vs. Ken Cuccinelli in the 37th district (45%-50%)

Leaning Republican Retention/Possible Upset?
Steve Heretick vs. Fred Quayle in the 13th district (35%-40% chance of Democratic victory)

I'd say there are two outside chances for Republicans to beat a Democratic incumbent: 1) Bob Fitzsimmonds vs. Chuck Colgan in the 29th district; and 2) Jeff Evans vs. Roscoe Reynolds.  Neither of these is likely, though, maybe a 20% chance each.

Bottom line: As of this moment, it looks like Democrats will pick up 4-9 Senate seats, with a median predicted outcome of 6.5 Senate seats gained.  A gain of 6 seats for Democrats will give them a 23-17 edge in the state Senate, compared to a 23-17 Republican advantage right now. Quite a turnaround; huge kudos to Mary Margaret Whipple for her stellar candidate recruitment and other fine work this year!
Now, the House of Delegates:

Likely or Leaning Democratic Pickups
Paul Nichols vs. Faisal Gill in the 51st district (95% chance of Dem. victory)
Margi Vanderhye vs. Dave Hunt  in the 34th district (90%)
Eric Ferguson vs. Charles Poindexter in the 9th district (80%)
Robert "Bobby" Mathieson vs. John Welch in the 21st district (65%)
Chris Brown vs. Jeff Frederick in the 52nd district (60%)
Connie Brennan vs. Watkins Abbitt in the 59th district (55%-60%)

Tossups
William Day vs Scott Lingamfelter in the 31st district (50%)
Fernando "Marty" Martinez vs. Joe May in the 33rd district (50%)
Jeannette Rishell vs. Jackson Miller in the 50th district (50%)

Leaning Republican Retention/Possible Upset?
Adam Tomer vs. Danny Marshall in the 14th district (40%-45%)
Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle in the 83rd district (40%-45%)
Jay Donahue vs. Tom Rust in the 86th district (40%-45%)
Andy Parker vs. Donald Merricks in the 16th district (40%)
Rex Simmons vs. Tim Hugo in the 40th district (35%-40% chance of Dem. upset victory)
Suzie Dixon Garner vs. Bill Carrico in the 5th district (35%)
Peggy Frank vs. Dave Nutter in the 7th district (25%-30%)
Carlos del Toro vs. Mark Cole in the 88th district (25%)
Bruce Roemmelt vs. Bob Marshall in the 13th district (20%)

I'd say there are two outside chances for Republicans to beat a Democratic incumbent: 1) Marc Cadin vs. Chuck Caputo in the 67th district; and 2) Hank Giffin vs. Paula Miller.  Neither of these is terribly likely, though, maybe a 30% chance each.

Bottom line: As of this moment, it looks like Democrats will pick up 5-9 House seats (possibly more upset potential than that, but I want to be cautious), with a median predicted outcome of 7 House seats gained.  A gain of 7 seats for Democrats will leave Republicans hanging on with a 51-47-2 edge in the House of Delegates, compared to a 57-40-3 Republican advantage right now.  As with the State Senate, this would mark quite a turnaround for Democrats this year. If it works out this way, major kudos to Brian Moran and Ward Armstrong for their hard work this year!

Comments



what about Kathleen Waddell? (Johnny Longtorso - 10/15/2007 8:25:34 AM)
isn't it likely that she'll be losing her seat?


Possibly, but since (Lowell - 10/15/2007 8:26:59 AM)
there's no Democrat running there, I didn't really analyze it.


Sadly... (norman swingvoter - 10/15/2007 12:21:53 PM)
Sadly I predict Waddell will lose.  I don't have polling data so this is obviously subjective.  Waddell won by fewer than 100 votes last time.  Loupassi was popular on The Richmond City Counsel and is considered a moderate.  We are getting 2-3 sunny direct mailings per week from him and the republican party.  He has substantially more yard signs up than Waddell.  Surprisingly I have started seeing yard signs for another Independent running, Bill Grogan. I fear that this will be too much for Waddell to overcome. 


I think Roemmelt is closer than you think (snolan - 10/15/2007 9:02:39 AM)
I've been canvassing for Roemmelt amongst supposedly undecided voters and voters that switch party affiliation in the primaries that last few elections...

There is a LOT more support for Roemmelt amongst those voters than we'd expect.  His drive to personally knock on thousands of doors in 2005 is paying off now - many voters remember him for both that and for hist constant campaigning for others through the 2006 congressional races.  People like him and trust him and are willing to cross party lines for him.

Sadly, many people are voting FitzSimmons (R) challenger for the Senate seat out here, and Roemmelt (D) challenger for the house seat out here.  Not a good year to be an incumbent?

The other thing that is interesting, is that even though we are only canvassing state legislature races, people are up in arms about the PWC county BOCS assault on immigrants.  Many are strongly in favor of this unfunded, unfair, and bigoted assault, but many are upset about it and voter turnout may be high on both sides because of that issue.  High turnout is good news for participatory democracy enthusiasts, and generally good news for Democrats, though perhaps not universally this time.

I think Colgan has more chance of getting bumped than we thought, but that Roemmelt has more chance of winning, certainly more chance than Bill Day does in the next district over (and I am hoping Bill Day wins too, btw).

We need to turnout big numbers of voters for all our honest candidates.



Oops - I spelled FitzSimmonds wrong (snolan - 10/15/2007 9:04:32 AM)
Sorry folks...


Incumbent (Arturo - 10/15/2007 2:20:22 PM)
You said "Not a good year to be an incumbent?"

I say: Not a good year to be a lazy incumbent.



Heretick can win (Vivian J. Paige - 10/15/2007 9:16:15 AM)
He just needs some money. Steve is running a heck of a campaign. See today's article in the Virginian Pilot.


88th House District (spotsylvania - 10/15/2007 10:11:14 AM)
25%?  Del Toro's win in the 88th will be most sweet.


Del Toro has run an excellent campaign (Lowell - 10/15/2007 10:29:28 AM)
and I love the guy, but that's a really, really tough district.  If Del Toro pulls off the upset on November 6, it will probably mean that the Democrats take back the House of Delegates.  That certainly WILL be sweet!!! :)


My sources (Teddy - 10/15/2007 10:15:44 AM)
tell me Devolites-Davis' relentless negative attack is having an effect, so Chap may be in trouble despite his positive, sunny campaign and his (up to now) limited response on the negatives. Also, Pollard may likewise be in more trouble than we think, so both Petersen and Pollard and can do with extra help.


On the other hand (snolan - 10/15/2007 10:34:19 AM)
Several political apathists (is that a word?) I know have recently told me they do not usually vote in odd year elections, but they are this year because they feel smothered by all the Davis crap in their mailbox, on their TVs, and on the streets.  They are voting, and they are voting for anybody but Davis just because they are sick of the overload.

Caveat: this group is a group that frequently can't be bothered to vote at all... but it is interesting when a huge and expensive campaign backfires.



I've heard that her ads have pissed off some (Lowell - 10/15/2007 10:35:35 AM)
people in the other direction, too.  My guess is that they'll be a wash in the end, maybe a slight plus for JMDD, but it won't be nearly enough.  She's toast.


Hmm, I dunno (Craig - 10/15/2007 12:24:39 PM)
I mean I live in that senate district and I've seen a lot more enthusiasm for Petersen than for Devolites-Davis.  But then again I live in Fairfax City in a preposterously pro-Chap neighborhood where everyone remembers him form his delegate days and likes him.  Still every time there's a public function with people from both sides, the Petersen people seem to outnumber the JMDD crowd by 5-1.

Not counting her entirely out yet, but that 5-1 ratio is troubling.  Local elections depend on the base's enthusiasm, and it doesn't seem very enthusiastic from what I've seen.



I think... (SWVA.Observer - 10/15/2007 10:17:14 AM)
Bill Thomas could go on that upset list as well. Consider the facts: freshman incumbent, less funding than either Nutter or Carrico, one full-time staffer (Anthony Reedy), challenger running from Pulaski County (33% of a five-county district).

I'll need to see the VPAP reports... but don't write this one off just yet.



I hope you're right. (Lowell - 10/15/2007 10:30:09 AM)
n/t


How to ensure victory and improve the odds.. (joe8track - 10/15/2007 12:22:49 PM)
Folks,

Its "crunch time". We'll need all hands on deck to help get our supporters out for all of our great candidates.

The most effective way of accomplishing victory is by door-to-door canvassing. The personal touch of speaking with a voter is the best way to get that voter to come out. The second way is with a personal call.

I invite you all to please spend a few hours (if not more) directly engaging voters by hitting the pavement and calling on the phone. And then of course, you can share your stories as so many others have on RK!

Your involvement is key. Our candidates need you.

Please feel free to contact me directly for information on how to get connected. If you've already volunteered, I thank you and encourage you to come out again and again.

Thanks, Raising Kaine community! You're one of the best things about working in Virginia!

Remember "We ensure victory by volunteering!"

Joe Montano
joe@vademocrats.org



VA 22nd (VTYogi - 10/15/2007 1:31:36 PM)
I think that Breiner is closer than you think, as well.  He is running a lot of tv and I have seen two mailers.  He has out rased and out spent Ralph and a lot of my republican friends don't support Smith.  I think Breiner is closer to a victory than an even toss-up. 


I'm not holding out hope for Mathieson and Bouchard (Johnny Longtorso - 10/15/2007 6:47:36 PM)
If you just went by signs, you'd think that the Republicans in Virginia Beach were running unopposed. I've seen scads of Stolle and Welch signs, and even the unopposed Iaquinto has signs everywhere. I've seen a whopping one sign for Bobby Mathieson -- and he has a terrible sign design. I had to look at it two or three times to figure out that it said "Bobby 21st". And I don't know whether I've seen any Bouchard signs anywhere.

I know signs aren't anything, but when Mick Meyer, who I don't ever hear about on this blog, has coated Greenbrier Parkway in Chesapeake with signs (and even the Libertarian running against Blevins for Senate has a few signs up), I don't understand why the Democrats in Virginia Beach have anything out there.



Signs don't vote, people do (snolan - 10/17/2007 6:09:10 AM)
Seriously - a huge number of signs can be placed illegally by a very small group of volunteers or paid campaign workers.  If those signs are not clearly on a home-owner's property or in front of a business, ignore them.  Only the ones in front of a house or business indicate a real voter.

All the ones along the VDOT right of way are illegal and they do not reflect real voters so much as a campaign desparately trying to get the word out.  Those in an empty field are like billboard adverts - again, not a real voter (unless there is a house on the empty field somewhere).

Get the vote out.