For those of you who aren't famliar with the phrase, "jump the shark," it refers to "a defining moment when you know that your favorite television show has reached its peak...from now on it's all downhill." The most famous example of this, and the source of the term, is that infamous moment when Fonzie (wearing swim trunks and his trademark leather jacket) from the popular 1970s show, Happy Days, jumps over a shark while on water skies.Well, sorry to all the thousands of Kilgore fans among our Raising Kaine readership (ok, maybe hundreds...dozens...single digits?), but Jerry and Scotty's Most Excellent Negative Campaign appears to have turned into Fonzie on Happy Days and completely "jumped the shark" now. Why do I say this? Check out the following wackiness, contained in an hysterical (in more ways than one) e-mail I just received from Kilgore campaign manager Ken Hutchesen:
There are some things you can count on. The sun will rise in the east. Night will follow day. Birds will fly south for the winter. And the final Washington Post poll of a Virginia gubernatorial campaign will be slanted against the Republican candidate in an effort to suppress Republican turnout.[...]
The bottom line is the Post ran a bad poll and they decided to report the faulty numbers anyway rather than admit there was a mistake and start over again.
[...]
We all know the Washington Post is not our friend and has again with this poll demonstrated a serious lack of judgment, and as a result, lacks the credibility to be taken seriously.
Efforts to supress Republican turnout? Washington Post not your friend? OK, now, take a deep breath, Ken. Exhale. Inhale. Contract and relax muscles. Relax. Count to ten. Feel any better now? Hysteria subsiding? No? Well, then, I recommend you keep repeating the relaxation exercise through November 8. Try it from the moment you wake up in the morning until the moment you go to bed at night. Maybe that will help, although I doubt it.
Seriously, can we say "Desperation at Kilgore Korral?" Because that's exactly what appears to have set in 9 days before voters go to the polls. What's truly hilarious about the Kilgore response to this poll is the contrast to its touting of PREVIOUS Washington Post polls, which they reprinted in the "news" section of their website and touted in gloating e-mails. For example, just a month ago, the Kilgore campaign was ecstatic over a Post poll giving Kilgore a 7-point lead among likely voters. And the Kilgore supporters were coming over here to gloat as well, with comments like:
*"This is huge news for Kilgore, he is up 7 and over the magic number: 50%. Kaine is in big trouble." (Dorsett)
*"Nice try at spin, you spinmeister. Kilgore wins this thing going away. " (Ravi)
Ha ha.
Then we had the reaction at Kilgore's unofficial mouthpiece, "Commonwealth Conservative:"
*"If you are a Democrat, don?t read the rest of the WaPo story. You won?t like what it says....This is more great news, but now isn?t the time to get complacent, Kilgore supporters. Keep working hard for the next two months." (Chad)
*"Raising Kaine is like reading The Onion this morning! Lowell?s spin is embarrassing, actually." (Coach Groh) - this one's my personal favorite, by the way!
In other words, when the Washington Posts's poll results were looking good for them, the Republicans weren't mentioning anything about any "flaws" or "liberal bias." Oh, but reverse those poll numbers and watch out! All of a sudden, they're screaming bloody murder -- without any evidence, of course, to back up such a charge -- that "the fix is in!" Sorry guys, you can't have it both ways, as desperately as you try. As the saying goes, "wishing does not make it so."
For the record, the Post poll shows Tim Kaine now leading Jerry Kilgore by 3 points, 47-44, among "likely voters" in next week's gubernatorial election. The poll also shows Tim Kaine gaining among crucial suburban and "swing" voters, while Kilgore?s base continues to be largely rural and conservative.
Perhaps most interestingly, the poll indicates that, while a majority of Virginians still support the death penalty, they also -- by a 2/3 margin -- believe that Kilgore went too far with his death penalty advertisements. In the Post poll, 55% of Virginians say that Jerry Kilgore will say anything to get elected. How true. In addition, it now appears clear that the Kilgore "Hitler ad" appears to have backfired, as many of us felt when the ad first came out. Indeed, as Mary Dotson points out, what the Kilgore "Hitler ad" appears to have done is to generate interest and passion about the campaign that had not existed before the ad came out. Great use of your money, Mr. Howell!
Having said all this, it is important to point out that the Post poll's margin of error is 3 points, which means that this race remains in a statistical dead heat. Also, it's important to note that 2 of the last 5 polls have shown Kilgore with the lead, while 3 polls have shown Tim Kaine ahead. I don't know about you, but that's a "dead heat" in my book. As Kaine campaign spokesman Mo Ellethee puts it, "This is still a very, very close race. It's going to be a very late night on election night." Mo has it exactly right: no overconfidence, work your butts off until the last minute!
Personally, my attitude is to ALWAYS fight like you're 3 points DOWN, not 3 points UP. Also, I always assume that when the chips are down for a Republican candidate advised by top media honcho Scott "Slime and Slander" Howell, the nasty ads will start to flow like milk and honey in the Promised Land. In other words, cover the childrens' eyes and ears the next week, cuz it's very likely gonna get nasty!