Photo courtesy of C.W. Dean; crossposted from dailykos at the request of LowellAs many people already know, Virginia is the most significant battle ground this election day, which is but 4 weeks away on November 6. While there are several governor's races, there is no real mystery about their outcomes. Meanwhile control of the Virginia General Assembly is up for grabs, with the State Senate being quite competitive, and even the possibility of the House of Delegates turning.
Several weeks ago I had a conversation with Creigh Deeds, state senator from Bath County (where the Homestead is located). Creigh narrowly lost the AG race in in 2005, and is positioning himself to possibly run for Governor in 2009. He told me that when they came out of the last legislative session the Dems thought they might have 4 Republican Senate seats in play, in which case they would have to run the table to flip it from its current 23-17 split. Now there may be as many as 9 Republican seats in play. In the House of Delegates, where Dems hold only 40 of the 100 districts, no one had expected the Dems to have a shot at more than perhaps 4-5, but now Creigh thinks even that body could flip.
So I am going to ask you to follow me below the fold while I offer you some more information, including how you can help, even if you don't live in Virginia.
You know I will eventually talk about money. Not Yet. If you are in DC or Maryland you can participate in one of the various 21/51 efforts run by the Arlington, Falls church and Alexandria Dems (none of whom face competitive races - you can make phone calls, knock on doors in nearby districts. Manpower is always welcome. You can go to this link from the Alexandria Dems to find out more (and it also has links on all the races.
I want explain some of the dynamics that are going on. First, Tim Kaine is the 2nd popular Democratic governor in a row (succeeding Mark Warner, whose Lieutenant Governor he was). Second, Kaine was able to get some of his agenda through the state senate because of some moderate Republicans. But there have been retirements (Russ Potts in Winchester and John Chichester in Fredericksburg) that has opened up seats that the Democrats can possibly pick up. Then there were moderate Republicans defeated in primaries by wingnuts. That opens up other seats. And when I say there are wingnuts running, consider Tricia Stall, running in the 1st Senate District, which consists of Hampton City (Part), Newport News City (Part), Poquoson City (All), York County (Part). She beat a moderate incumbent Republican. And she opposes public education. That's for starters. Her opponent, John Miller, has deep roots in te community, and has shown a real ability to raise money.
Similarly, in the 27th District, which includes Clarke County (All), Fauquier County (Part), Frederick County (All), Loudoun County (Part), Winchester City (All), Karen Schultz has a real shot, because outgoing moderate Republican Russ Potts will not endorse the Republican candidate, Jill Holtzman Vogel, and there is a 3rd party candidate who may also cut into the Republican vote. Normally this would be a tough district, but Karen has outraised Vogel, who faced a nasty primary. And the Republican was an attorney for the RNC at the time of the emails, and may have other legal problems as well. Karen Schultz is a popular professor at Shenandoah University, has served on the school board and also on state and national association of school boards. She is in a district where there is also an active House of Delegates context in the Loudoun part of the District (the 33rd, with Marty Martinez, and there is a certain amount of synergy between the two races, who have coordinated some efforts.
A similar thing can be found a bit south of here, in Stafford County, which is part of the 27th Senate District, open because of the retirement of Chichester, where Al Pollard who previously represented part of the Senate district in the House of Delegates is running a strong race. Meanwhile, the fundraising phenom is first time candidate Carlos del Toro in the 88th. Del Toro is a retired Commander in the Navy, and that has given him entry to a fair number of military families (many from the Quantico Marine Base).
It would be impossible to list ALL of the competitive races. In nearby Fairfax County, long-time Republican member of the House Vince Callahan has retired from a district that has become increasingly Democratic, so Margi Vanderhye should be given an edge, although one can take nothing for granted.
And the increasing Democratic nature of Northern Virginia has put a number of Republican held Senate seats in play, three in Fairfax County. We are talking about districts won by Kaine in 2005 and Webb in 2006, and in some cases even by Kerry in 2004. These are winnable. in the 37th Senate district we have Janet Oleszek who is currently serving as a member of the Fairfax County School Board. in the 39th George Barker is running a strong campaign, even having done an event with Helen Thomas!
But the highest profile race is the 34th, where Chap Peterson is taking on Jeane Marie Devolites Davis. If you don't recognize her name, she dumped her husband while in office in order to marry Congressman Tom Davis, whom John Warner would like to see succeed him in the Senate. In Virginia we have no limit on contributions in state election contests, and Davis is using all his connections to get lots of of money for his wife. But she is in real trouble. Chap previously represented a good chunk of the District in the House of Delegates, where he served after serving on Fairfax City Council, before he gave up his senate seat to try for the Lt. Gov spot (he lost the primary to Leslie Byrne, who will be running for Davis's House seat, whether he runs again, runs for the Senate, or simply retires). Chap has knocked on tons of doors. He has great connections with the Korean-American community: his wife is Korean by background, he speaks some Korean, and a good chunk of his law practice is for that community. He is a very aggressive campaigner, and is even getting some name people to work precincts for him on election day, for example, the aforementioned Leslie Byrne, and, oh yeah, some blogger who goes by "teacherken."
Why are so many races in play? In part it is because of two successive popular Democratic governors. It is the changing nature of the population,especially in Northern Virginia. There is overflow anti-Republicanism because of the Bush administration, and especially Iraq. But we have our own Old Dominion reasons as well. Transportation has been a mess. The Republican solution (which they are now trying to blame on Kaine) was to (a) allow local areas to raise taxes to pay for roads, and (b) have ridiculously high fines for traffic offenses. It is the latter that has really gotten them into trouble.
And their visceral reaction against raising taxes is leading to cutting of services, including funding for the state University system, which includes Virginia Tech, VMI, UVa, William & Mary, George Mason and James Madison. That is not going over well, either.
It is absolutely critical that Dems win the state senate - this cohort will be in office for the redistricting for Congress and for the General Assembly after the 2010 census. And if we could fully take over the state, it would send shock waves throughout the political world, and might indicate that Virginia is in play for 2008.
There is one monkey wrench. The death of Congresswoman Davis might mean that the special election for that district is also on November 6. Since it is unlikely the Dems would win the seat even in an open race, I would prefer that the higher profile House race not be then, so that it does not lead to an increase of Republican turnout. Republicans in Virginia are quite down right now. The only tactic they seem to have is to harp on illegal immigration, and that might be backfiring: the Washington Post had an article how the demagoguing of illegal immigration in Prince William County has contributed to a decline in property values.
The national Republican party is already pouring money into some of the contested races here, because the local Republicans are having trouble raising $$. I have heard from a number of sources that Republicans ae pretty much conceding that they will lose the state senate, and focusing their efforts on the House of Delegates, but I don't think they will go quietly. The senators in Fairfax - O"Brien (Barker), Cucinelli (Oleszek) and Devolites Davis (Peterson) are waging vigorous, if sometimes silly campaigns. Davis has attacked Peterson for attending Truro Parish (of the Episcopal Church) because it has withdrawn from the US Episcopal Church over the consecration of gay Bishop Gene Robinson, but she herself participated in a 5-K fundraising event there. Oh, and recently she called herself a RINO - really, knowing that in her district as it currently is if she is seen as a Republican she has real problems.
I have lived in Virginia for more than 2 decades. I do not claim to be an expert on our politics in the Old Dominion. I strongly suggest that if you are interested in what is going here, there are two absolutely invaluable website
Raising Kaine whose community was responsible for getting Jim Webb into the US Senate race and where Virginia candidates and politicians regularly come to liveblog, and Not Larry Sabato - yeah, I know the name of that one is ironic given Markos' involvement with the real Larry Sabato, but Ben Tribbett, who broke the "macaca" story, may know as much about Virginia politics as anyone (warning - Ben does not think much of Oleszek's campaign manager). If you look along the edges of Raising Kaine, on the left you will see links for many Virginia blogs, and on the right, down a bit, will be the RSS feeds from a number of them, and from dailykos when a story or diary has a tag of Virginia, as will this diary.
Oh, and I should mention one more, Ox Road South. Ox Road is the boundary of the senate district in which Chap Peterson is running. Hey folks, he is a blogger as well as a lawyer, so show some love.
I hope this encourages some people to assist. You can give money through a variety of these links. And I have not mentioned all the candidates I could, people like Steve Heretick, Rex Simmons, Jeannette Rishel, Bruce Roemmelt (who is running against the truly odious Robert Marshall), and a great lady, Connie Brennan, whose opponent incumbent Watkins Abbitt used an airbrushed picture of a general store in ALASKA to attack Connie for what she had done on a county board just south of Charlottesville. Go figure.
Something IS happening in Virginia. We are already at least purple, and we have hopes we are really turning the Old Dominion Blue.
You can help. Of course you can give money. In the next month Virginia is far more important than Congressional and presidential campaigns, whose next reporting deadline is not until the end of the year (I told you I would ask about money). If you know people in Virginia, tell them to get involved. And if you can spend some time in the state, we can always use your help.
Thanks for reading.
Peace.
I will put links to it up in subsequent open threads there
it generated some interest, including some out of state contributions
and here? Lowell did ask me to post, so what about it?
On the other hand, people are more likely to turn out for a Congressional election than for General Assembly, and given the demographics of the CD that could create problems for Pollard, etc.
Given the short period of time, and not wanting to start the process, one can argue that it should be after the election. But then by law it cannot be until December 6 -- thirty days is the minimum from a scheduled election. And since that is a Thursday, you could not have an election until Dec 11.
I have no idea how that will play out.
Fantastic post teacherken, thanks!
There will be a fundraiser for Connie Brennan on Tuesday, October 16, from 5-7 PM at Bashir's Restaurant, 507 East Main Street, Charlottesville (east end of the Downtown Mall).
As we have written here before, Connie Brennan has raised a little more money than Watkins Abbitt has in their race for the 59th House seat. Abbitt's money has come almost entirely from corporate PACs and lobbyists, so we need some citizen lobbyists to counter them.
I will just give the link for the rest of the story;