so would not be qualified really to comment on Creigh Deeds versus Payne or Boucher.  Suffice it to say, that if Brian runs I'll support him in the primary.

Having lived in the Fighting Ninth for seven years, I don't see how Rick Boucher runs for Governor.  He's not known outside his district at all, and while he comes from a great region for a Democrat, he's always been more of the constituent service kind of representative.  I have never seen in him the great ambition that I have seen in other folks, both GOP and Democratic. 

I would be stunned if Boucher were to run for Governor. 

Matusleo
Ut Prosim

Personally, I think Warner, Kaine, Webb, and other Democraticn Leaders are going to try to do whatever they can to avoid a brutal primary.  They'll make a deal between the two.  I'm hearing that in the GOP, Bolling, McDonnell, Davis, and Allen are all serious candidates for Governor.  That'll be just a brutal primary.  Democrats will want to take advantage of that by having a solid candidate.

I honestly think Creigh is a better statewide candidate than Brian.  He got within 400 votes on a candidate that had twice the funds he did.  And he's learned a lot since then.  He's become a better campaigner.  He doesn't stutter much anymore, and can speak without rocking back and forth.  Hell, at Acres of Dems down in the ninth a few weeks ago, I found it very odd that it was Brian who was standing in the corner with his handlers, and Creigh out shaking hands and joking.  Brian has a Boston accent and a liberal streak that just will not fly in Districts outside NoVA (trust me, that won't be attractive in the fifth, sixth, seventh, ninth, first, fourth, and second).  I really think that party insiders know that, and are going to try to get Creigh that nomination, and try to make a deal with Brian.

used to represent my district.  When I met him a year ago, he struck me as very smart and capable, very serious, and not much of an idealogue.  If it were a federal office, I would want someone more clearly progressive, but I'd be inclined to support him for governor - so long as he's not too terribly conservative.

But I would think Payne would be a great LtGov candidate should he want to get back into state politics. 

As a lifelong resident of Fairfax County, I feel no loyalty to Brian Moran.  Creigh Deeds is much more appealing to me (for personal reasons of course, I'm sure both would make great governors).

Concerning Rick Boucher: He's majorly comfortable in the House, and I'm sure likes being in the majority.  He's not going to quit a surefire job for a tough statewide race and a primary that would force him to the Left.

if Payne tried to unseat Virgil Goode instead. And if Boucher retired I'd worry about losing his seat to a Republican.

I like both Brian and Creigh a lot. But I think Sen. Deeds is a much stronger candidate in a statewide race. I think the Moran name hurts Brian more than just the fact that he's from NOVA.

I would like to see Brian either stick around and try to become Minority Leader or, even better, Speaker of the VA House. It'd also be nice to see him, at some point, replace Jim in the US House. Brian reminds me of MD's Chris Van Hollen.

Exactly. L.F. Payne has been out of the game for too long. I don't have the sense that he's ready to really fight for the nomination for governor. He backed down from a race against Tim Kaine a few years ago.

If he's serious about re-entering electoral politics, I think he needs to pay some 21st century dues. Taking on Virgil Goode in the 5th to re-gain his old seat would be just the right move. L.F. Payne is about the only person I can think of who is capable of beating Virgil. If he won that seat and served two terms, he'd be in a very strong position to secure the nomination for governor in 2013.

2009 is Creigh's year.

I think we should have wonderful candidates for Lt. Governor and Attorney General as well as Governor.

Kaine cannot run for governor again, but Bolling and McDonnell can BOTH seek second terms for their current seats.  Therefore, if Allen and Gilmore come along to run for governor, the other two can stay where they are.  Bolling and McDonnel both won once already, and have name recognition.  They also have had pretty clean noses over the past few years.

We need to make sure we have competitive races for all three seats.

At this point I think anything can happen in 2009.

I would love to write off Allen, but hasn't that happened before?  Gilmore seems to think he is pretty relevent too.

2009 will be an interesting year for Democrats in my opinion.

But any "speculation" over him running are based purely in rumor. He's finally in the majority, and he's in a seat that he can easily hold until he decides to retire. He's in the ideal position for a politician, and I'm not sure the 9th district could find a better representative.

Creigh Deeds 2009.

Sorry, but I can't picture Boucher as governor.  He's a sharp and capable guy but looks too much like a nerdy economics professor.

I agree with comments above about Creigh as the most likely and probably most deserving nominee.  Brian Moran would have to have his brother's mouth surgically sewn shut in order to have a chance to win. 

of Creigh and Brian.

I'm so glad I took it so you could use it whenever you want without attribution.

You know better, James.

when I was standing there when you took the photo. My apologies- I lifted it from Sorenson who lifted it from you- If I had been thinking I would have given you credit.

Sorry about that.

There are Creigh and Brian.  I honestly think it'll come down to the two, but I also predict that there will not be a primary. I think Dem leaders will try to avoid one so the two can come to a basic, simple conclusion.

I beg Rick Boucher to stay where he is.  The Ninth District couldn't ask for a better congressman.  I'm afraid that we'll lose the district if Rick leaves.  Plus I can't see him winning a contested primary. Or for that matter even wanting to run without a lot of support from the State party, which I don't see coming.

I agree that the party leaders will do everyting they can to prevent a contested primary.  We need to sit back with our ticket in place and let the repubilicans slaughter each other in an acrimonious primary.

For what it's worth -- here are my picks for 2008/2009.

2008

Boucher stays in Congress.
Payne defeats the traitor, Virgil Goode in the 5th.
Leslie Byrne retakes the open 11th District seat or beats Davis in a close one
Mark Warner slaughters Tom Davis or George Allen or Jim Gilmore or anybody else the republicans run for US Senate

2009
Creigh Deeds gets the nod for Governor
Brian Moran runs for Lt. Gov.
and a blast from the past:

Sen. John Edwards from Roanoke runs for AG.

I just thought Edwards might be a mistake.  Because we'll need every vote we have in the VA Senate for redistricting in 2011.

Any thoughts for AG?

Don McEachin.

Let Don stay where he is.  Though I like Edwards, we'd most likely lose his seat if he ran.  I'd personally like to see it this way:

Creigh Deeds for Governor
LF Payne for Lt Governor
Brian Moran for Attorney General

Is Brian an attorney?  I don't know.  But I think Moran could have some problems down my way.  That Boston accent just doesn't play well in Scott County.  Of course with Creigh and L.F. on the ticket it might not hurt, unless Jerry Kilgore is the Republican nominee. 

I've heard rumors that he might be interested in AG in 2009.  If he's the republican nominee, I don't know if anybody could pull the Ninth.  And Moran certainly would help in NOVA.

Oh Well enough speculation on 2009, back to the phones for our local candidates this year.

After law school he worked as a judicial clerk for the judges of the Arlington Circuit Court, then became a prosecutor with the Arlington Commonwealth's Attorney's office, where he was highly regarded by all sides as fair-minded and competent.  After that he moved into a varied private practice in Alexandria. 

If McEachin wins the Senate race in November (and I fervently hope so) we would be losing another critical vote for redistricting in the Senate.

Just a wild idea.  But how about Anne Holton for AG.  The juvenile justice system is in dire need of reform in Virginia and Anne has been a voice for Virginia's children for close to 30 years.

If he's elected governor, we lose his seat unless its a sure seat.  That would hurt for 2011, too.

All this talk about paying dues is silly inside baseball that has no foundation in electability.  LF would be an excellent candidate and is the kind of reasonable Democrat who has just enough across-the-aisle appeal to do some real damage. 

Boucher's not going to run as he just got back in the majority in the House and is enjoying his Commerce Subcommittee Chairmanship.

L.F. probably won't run as he has a huge new house to pay for in C'ville.  And, let's face it, while he's a fine and decent person (I think one of the most decent in politics), if he couldn't raise enough money to run for Lt. Governor, how's he going to mount a gubernatorial campaign?

Which brings us to Moran and Deeds.  It seems to me, as a Southsider, that Moran will be a heavy, if not prohibitive, favorite:

-- He's already signed the vaunted Mame Reilly of Mark Warner fame who's a relentless fundraiser and tough political operative.

-- He's begun putting together a group of advisers/supporters that already spans the state (and the party) geographically and demographically.

-- His leadership of the House Caucus has been pretty extraordinary in terms of candidates recruited, money raised and engineering the unusual (though much needed)  midterm election of Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, who's proving much more effective than his predecessor.  All this is especially impressive as it's generally conceded that retaking the House will be much more difficult than the Senate given that the House districts were redrawn in a far more partisan manner.

Creigh's a nice guy; but when you look at the organizational weaknesses of his AG's campaign and compare his tenure as Chair of the House Caucus to Moran's, it seems that any impartial observer would have to agree that Moran comes out ahead in terms of political, organizational and managerial skills. 

If I had to bet, I'd wager Creigh will take a look at the lay of the land and decide to run for A.G. again.  With a credible candidate for Lt. Gov, that'll be a really strong ticket.