One detail that jumped out at me was that there's a significant gender gap in Kaine's approval numbers. Among women, Kaine is +31, compared to just +9 among men. Republicans are evenly split on Kaine (46%-46%), while Democrats overwhelmingly approve (66%-27%). Geographically, Kaine is most popular in Central Virginia (+32), followed by "Northeast" (+19), Shenandoah (+14) and "Southeast" (+14). I'm actually a bit surprised that Kaine isn't more popular in NOVA, maybe less popular in Shenandoah, at least according to SurveyUSA.
P.S. One more interesting finding by SurveyUSA is that only 37% of Virginians approve of President Bush, while 61% disapprove. Among Democrats, only 8% approve, while 90% disapprove.
I still feel that the fees may end up being one of the most overrated political issues of this election cycle. The best the press can do is trot out 1) a guy busted in Henrico 5! times for driving without a license, 2) a woman who lied to a judge about being in labor (but did not mention this fact to the officer that pulled her over) and 3) a drunk veteran on a moped.
Meanwhile, the rest of us who mostly follow the law (hey who doesn't drive a few miles over the speed limit now and then) haven't been hit by them and neither have any of our law abiding acquaintances.
I'm not saying the fees shouldn't be addressed -- they clearly should. But unfortunately (as a Democrat) I don't think they'll end up being the killer issue some D campaigns (and even some R challengers) hope they will.
And numbers like that could put him back in the governor's seat in 2013. If the Dems make the mistake of nominating Deed's in 2009 and he loses, which I would expect to happen, Kaine would be in a great posiiton to run a second time. And of course, he could run again in 2013 as Governor Moran would be unable to seek re-election as state law would preclude him for running for a second consecutive term.
If Deed's wants to un for statewide office again, he needs to run for AG again. But his gun control stance will still hurt him - with demographics shifting so quickly on a daily basis in NOVA, it appears, based on recent past elections, that pro-gun control voters around the state, particularly in NOVA, are starting to outweigh pro gun voters statewide. And that is why he had trouble in NOVA in 2005. And he will have more trouble with politicians like Doug Wilder in Richmond as well in 2009. Deed's would be a disaster heading a ticket in 2009.
And Deeds had better watch his back - Del., Steve Shannon is raising money and organizing a campaign to run for AG so he could end up with no place on the ticket in 2009.
And you are underestimating Brian Moran - his base in NOVA is huge, he can raise money, he's working hard to elect Dems to the House and Senate this fall, collecting all sorts of IOU's - and most importantly, he has the staff to run a great campaign, all BIG PLUSES.
Pro Gun/Anti Gun there is too much emphasis on a single issue. In most peoples minds it is a dead issue and if someone thinks they are going to win an election on a 20th Century issue, they are dead wrong, OOPs, they will lose..
And if Moran wants to win the Gov. he better run for something else in the state first. Plus money will not buy votes in this part of the state. Being part of the community counts more then money. Also to think C-Ville does not have the money to match, some people should get out of their bed room and look at the rest of the state.
Moran is everywhere - and most of the time Moran and Deed's show up at the same events at the same time.
And if guns are not important why was Deed's touting his NRA endorsement in 2005? That was the reason Mayor Wilder in Richond refused to endorse him in the 2005 race - the NRA endorsement. And if it wasn't the gun issue that prevented a lot of NOVA Dems from suppoting Deed's in the general election, then what was it? And, if there was another issue besides guns that prevented Dems from voting for him in the general, than he now has two problems to deal with in 2009.