Ben over at Not Larry Sabato has his predictions for 2007 up, and he sees 3 Democratic Senate pickups. In contrast, I believe there will be at least 4 and possibly 7 (the most likely outcome is 5). These are in order of the "blue-ness" of the district.Devolites-Davis vs. Petersen: In a district that went ~60% for Tim Kaine, Devolites-Davis needed a heck of a reason to give her constituents to return her to Richmond... Too bad she picked the GOP Transportation Bill :-)
On the same side, Chap Petersen is a heck of a candidate running the best campaign in town.
My money is on: Chap by 12 points
O'Brien vs. Barker: Kaine's ~55% showing in the district should make this district a tight race, however the meltdown of the Fairfax GOP and Tom Davis' fascination on JMDD tip the balance toward Barker. O'Brien can only win if he pulls off unholy numbers in Prince William- which looks less and less likely.
My money is on: Barker by 5-7
Cuccinelli vs. Oleszek: Politically similar to the O'Brien/Barker race however with two stronger candidates... Cuccinelli (the most conservative member of the Senate) has beaten back 2 challenges before and Oleszek has won countywide. The only way Cuccinelli will survive is with a divided Democratic Party and a fantastic campaign.
My money is on: Oleszek in a VERY close race
Rerras vs. Northam: I plead ignorance- please enlighten me in the thread.
Stall vs. Miller: Stall proposes we cut taxes by eliminating public education then defeats an incumbent who seems to have forgotten he has constituents. If this is close... Well lets just say "God Help the Virginia State Senate". Did I mention that Stall isn't good at raising money?
District: ~48% Kaine
My money is on: Miller by 10 (hopefully more).
These are just my views on how the campaigns are coming so far- please leave your ideas and insights in the comment section so we can all learn more about these races.
Three more I will cover tomorrow: Fred Quayle vs. Steve Heretick (possible surprise upset here), Jill Holtzman Vogel vs. Karen Schultz (the more I hear, the harder it is to predict), and Richard Stuart vs. Albert Pollard (Richard Stuart does a rain dance every night hoping it will rain in the Northern Neck on Election Day).
I get the sense Oleszek is really putting pressure on Cuccinelli. He is a personable guy and a good campaigner, but some of the stuff he puts out there is just so bizarre...and he is about as far ideologically from his constituents as you can be and still have a shot. On the issues Janet is far closer to the views of most in her district, and she is running a good campaign, so I agree I think she will pull it out as well...
Northam gets this. Rerras is a slimy slimeball, and the good Dr. Northam has a positive energy. The only other leaders I have seen like this are Mark Warner and John Edwards. Northam has it.
Rerras is really turning into a bottom feeder beyond bottom feeders.
You should see some of the negative energy hitting the mailboxes. I am embarassed he is currently my Senator. It is not the type of thing you expect Senators to send.
It is not what our forefathers had in mind.
It sickens me that people run for office, have served, and STILL have nothing positive to offer those they want to serve. We deserve better!
Northam is better!
So, James, short answer made long, Northam wins.
The piece says that since Northam opposes the abuser fees he, Dr. Ralph Northam, supports lighter fees for drunk drivers. Have you ever heard of something so crazy?
This mailer is from a desperate candidate (Rerras) trying his best to hold on to a seat he wants to keep; it is neither about me nor about my neighbors along the Bay he supposedly represents. Rerras should be telling us of all he has done in his last two terms not making up lies about his opponent.
In real life, the good Dr. Northam works with kids who are terminally ill. How can Rerras such things about anyone, but expect any credibility when he launches such accusations at someone who has chosen a career dedicating his life to working to save the lives of children?
It has swift boat written all over it.
But, here's the clincher for me, Rerras shows up and talks about how he "loves" the God fearing people of Mathews County" at our local fair a few weeks ago. HELLO: God is love (First John - 4:8); not hate. How can one who "fears God" pay to have lies delivered to people's mailboxes? (These were not RPV mailers, but paid for by Nick Rerras.) He should fear God! In my mind, it is beyond hypocritical.
This negativity is not what people want, it is not what people need, and it is certainly not what we deserve. We deserve better!
Rerras has been in the state Senate for two terms. In all that time, he has nothing positive he can share with his constituents, no shining moments. He has nothing he can say he is proud to bring home.
Well, buh bye then little Nicky! Eight years on my dime is long enough!
Jim are you that much of a partisan Hack? Chap Peterson should beat JMDD but since Gerry and Tom both cut that deal its not going to happen.
also did you catch any of the chamber debate yesturday afternoon... Baise mopped the floor with Connolly