after all, Leslie Byrne might run again, and Doug Denneny is already in the race.  Somehow I have the feeling that if all three get in the race the advantage is Byrne's.

And according to her husband, she will announce what if anything to run for next year by October 20, and Larry just hopes she'll tell him by the 19th.  When I spoke with her she said she would make her decision independently of whether or not Warner has yet announced his plans.  Of course, she - like many of us - think it is likely the Warner may announced next Saturday at his annual pig roast.

between Gerry Connolly, Leslie Byrne, and newcomer Doug Denneny.  I certainly wouldn't bet against Leslie in a Democratic primary!

Its one thing to debate on who may run in the primary but to already be predciting a victory in the 11th is in all honesty a bit premature to say the least. The expectation is that no matter who runs without any issues and visions for the future brought forth by any candidates makes me feel at times just how broken our system really has become. We have no idea who will actually run for this seat. Should we not wait and at least hear out those who may run before determining the outcome. It makes me wonder why we dont just answer the ballots on election day simply by checking a blue box or a red box or maybe a green one and calling it a day.

I am NOT in favor of one more Corporcrat (Connolly) in the Democratic party.

Gerry is as liberal as they come... Though I will give you he has trouble getting that across on the blogosphere.

on some social issues that are important to the base of the Democratic Party.  And he's got a very good record on environmental issues, including Cool Counties, green government buildings, intelligent land use and encouraging development clustered near Metro stations.

But he also is perceived as too eager to encourage development and too friendly with the real estate development community. Also, he needs to shore up his support with labor. 

Leslie starts with an advantage there.  She's the daughter of a shop steward who is seen as one of their own. She's clearly seen as the most likely candidate to advance the cause of true economic populism, which is playing very well as more people besides organized labor sour on our economy, which is weakening and has failed to provide wage growth or pension and health benefits even at the height of its strength. 

I also think Leslie won lots of points with the blogosphere and progressives in general because of her very early support for Jim Webb.  She and Larry embraced his candidacy and gave it legitimacy with some Democrats who were skeptical about his Republican past.  Like the Byrnes, Webb is an economic populist and a critic of the Iraq War.

However, Gerry made a good start with labor by finally coming on board with support for the living wage and support for big box legislation, which was necessary for environmental reasons and was supported by unions.

Another wrinkle is Doug Deneny. Because he is a newcomer, I know less about him than I do about Leslie and Gerry.  But he's been willing to engage the blogs.  So, that too will make it an interesting race.  Deneny could end up splitting the blogosphere and possibly the progressives so that Gerry, seen as more moderate and pro-business, gets in.

So far, nobody is more of a progressive than Leslie, which will make this a very competitive race in the blogoshere.  It will be interesting to see who has the better ground operation, which may be a key to this race too.

Thanks Karen.

Oh James, you're fighting a VERY lonely battle here.  And trust me, I know something about lonely battles.

seems like James is just dutifully serving the "official party establishment"

While James is a little fast to give the seat to Gerry. I do agree it will be a good race between Leslie and Gerry. I gotta say I am kind of new to Northern Virginia but what does everyone have against Connolly. I mean Ben makes it seem like Gerry kicked his dog.

Not everyone is against Connolly -- but a vocal group are on this website.  Just to put it in perspective, I don't think that Gerry has lost a race in Fairfax County.  Can Leslie say that?

My point -- don't bet against Gerry!  By the way, I like him (as if you couldn't tell).

Connolly?  Byrne?  What about HURST - the person who garnered 44% of the vote - the most by any challenger in 2006?  An open seat seems like prime time for someone with his particular qualifications.  He also doesn't have the same liabilities as the others.