RK ARCHIVE - Independents to Decide the Balance?

So what would happen in that circumstance? I believe it could give the 3 independents in the House enormous power, including Delegate Watkins Abbitt. More after the cut.
Lacey Putney would almost certainly caucus with the Republicans, while Katherine Waddell who did not caucus with either party last term would likely lean Democratic if she defeats a strong Republican challenge from Manoli Loupassi. But what about Watkins Abbitt?

Though he has caucused with Republicans, this former Democrat might revert back to his old ways if it appeared the Republicans who have pulled his strings would no longer be in power. The nature of his switch to independence shows that he values the maintenance of his power above all else, and if he could tip the scales that would likely give him even more power than he already enjoys.

But, must Democrats get Republicans under 50 seats in order to take control of the House? Not necessarily. I can envision two scenarios or a combination of them that could lead to a Democratic speaker. One would be a coalition speakership of someone like Frank Hall, out of power with Democrats and sought out by desperate Republicans who either almost lost their seats or saw neighboring districts switch sides.

The other scenario would be party switching. If Republicans get down to 51 seats or so, a number of Republican legislators who felt lucky to survive this time might not feel so confident about next time, particularly in quickly swinging Northern Virginia districts where the Democratic trend is encroaching further out into the suburbs with each year. All it would take is 2 or 3 "moderate" Republicans who can already feel the target on their back to switch to independent or Democratic status and anoint a new Democratic speaker (or one of their own, perhaps Abbitt?) and the Democrats could achieve politically what they weren't quite able to finish at the ballot box.

Voters in independent districts may want to think twice about voting for a major party candidate under the assumption that they will have more power. Come January, independents could control all of the power in the House.

Comments

great commentary (JScott - 9/4/2007 10:23:17 AM)

This is great commentary on the relevance of the the independents. My area though touted as strongly Rep has alarge contingent of independent voters which have gotten independent candidates in virtually every Supervisor district race this Fall as well as have the Delegate race for the 68th with incumbant Waddell. We have an organized dinner Thursday night in Richmond with the 12 horseman (those workhorses working the districts and canvassing along with their 4-person teams)on behalf of the candidates we are supporting. The Dems do not have a candidate in the 68th..again!! I am sure the Presidential race will come up as well as the potential Senate race next year and will straw poll where everyone is leaning at this point.
With Independents on the ballot, our county for the first time in forever has an opportunity of not being dominated by Reps (now 5) as Supervisors.

Thanks (norman swingvoter - 9/4/2007 12:00:46 PM)

I live in Katherine Waddell's district and have been wondering how having an independent might work. I don't have a poll but I would say the odds of winning favor Loupassi at this point. He was a popular member of The Richmond City Council and has a reputation of being a moderate. We have already been called on a poll for him. My wife answered the phone. She said they asked about her feelings for george bush as well as Loupassi. Waddell only won by about 100 votes last time.

that is correct (JScott - 9/4/2007 4:16:01 PM)

You are correct with regard to Waddell. She did pull alot of support from the City (1st ward) area where Loupassi represented the City Council of Richmond, but based on the Republican primary data Loupassi spent alot of money resulting in a fairly dismal turnout in Chesterfield where he certainly needs support. In any other election I may be inclined to believe Loupassi in a walk, but this year may certainly not be the year to be a Republican here. Early canvassing/polls are showing the desire to change the Board of Supervisors which may help Waddell up ballot more than Loupassi. Loupassi can easily be associated with the issues of the City that still continue today and is the City better off today then before Loupassi became a councilman. As long as the mayor and School Board go at it and the City unable to secure new stadium for R-Braves, Loupassi will continually be associated with a do-nothing city council. Not exactly the best platform to run on against an incumbant regardless of Party. Throw in Battery Park flooding and the edge if probably exploited may favor Waddell. On the flip Loupassi also is no Brad Marrs either.

A Thoughful (Gordie - 9/4/2007 12:36:52 PM)

write up about Independants possibly being the deciding factor. What I have a hard time believing is that Watkins will be around in '08, but if by some miracle he is, he may have caucused behind Republicans, but I am almost certain he will change if he can get Demo support for the bills he has written that he cannot get out of Committee under Republican rule. Here is a Delegate with 22 years experience has written many bills who cannot get the party in power to support him. Connie Brennan just may unseat him, but if not, she will rattle his cage so bad he will have to rethink his positions.

Isn't it something this year that so many want to run Independant, especially moderate Republicans?

Good work trying to push your point, but how will Independants gain 51 seats that they will control the house? How many will be a Joe Lieberman?

An Independant candidate would have to be exceptional candidate and the Democrat mediocare before I would give up my Democratic vote to support him or her.

Nice Try though.

Just to clarify (chippenham - 9/4/2007 1:26:41 PM)

I'm not saying that independents will make up a majority. I'm saying I could foresee the Dems having 47 seats, the R's having 50, and 3 independents. And 1 or 2 R's either switching to independent or forming a coalition with the independents that approaches the Dems to combine into a power sharing agreement.

Even though the Dems might have more seats than the I's, the I's would be the determining factors in swinging power so they would have a lot of power in that coalition.

Closer at the Margins (eengel - 9/4/2007 8:44:59 PM)

Electorally, the city of Richmond is pretty dead for competitive races besides the Waddell-Loupassi race. Although I don't live in the district I think the financial reports of both candidates could be very telling.
Although VPAP's reports are outdated with the new reporting period just finishing, the fact that Manoli only had $20,000 cash on hand vs. Waddell's $90,000 really caught my eye. I'm really interested to see what the July-August report shows. Manoli would be in a much better position had he not dropped his whole campaign war chest on a primary where he could have won by only spending $50,000. I think if Manoli really wants to put this in the bag, he needs to have the most recent report show him with $100,000 in the bank.

As for the other Independents, Putney is a shoe-in and Abbitt will probably win in the end, probably only by 5 or 6%. As was stated earlier, as the margins between Republicans and Democrats get tighter, which they most certainly will in 2007, those delegates who remain as Independents will gain political capital almost never seen before among Independents. Let's not forget that if the Democratic trend in Virginia continues, 2009 is going to be very interesting.