RK ARCHIVE - Virginia Senate Candidates?

Brian Moran - The leader of the House Democrats is probably most likely to consider a Senate bid if the party doesn't take the seats necessary for control of the Virginia House of Delegates. With a base of support in Chesapeake and a network of contacts and supporters across the state, not to mention the fact that many people in northern Virginia are already inclined to vote for someone named Moran, Brian would be an excellent candidate in the mold of Jon Tester or Jeff Merkley.

Don Beyer - The former Lt. Governor of Virginia already has an established base that tried to recruit him in 2006. He still does the rounds of political get-togethers in northern Virginia, and has de-facto bumper stickers on thousands of cars. He's a good campaigner, though he had difficulty in translating his popularity in northern Virginia into state-wide momentum in 2001. His experience in state-wide office and in state-wide campaigns would serve him well, however, in an election year already trending against the Republicans.

Jim Moran - The second Moran brother on this list, Jim Moran would benefit from name recognition in the Chesapeake region because of Brian Moran. Representative Moran is an established and well-recognized face in Congress, so he may not be interested in giving up his priviledges and seniority there to make a run for the senior chamber. Jim Moran is a political moderate, helping found the New Democrat Coalition and voting for CAFTA, though he did oppose the Defense of Marriage Act. He has been a long-standing proponent of Virginia high technology. He even liveblogged over at WashingtonPost.com this year. Perhaps burnishing his netroots credentials just in case he wanted to run?

Creigh Deeds - The only rural Virginian on the list, Creigh has retained the state-wide network of contacts he developed during his run for Attorney General in 2005. He is widely expected to run for Governor in 2009, but if Mark Warner indicated he wanted to return to Richmond, Creigh may make a run for the Senate. Creigh has the advantage of knowing how to win in regions that are not northern Virginia or Chesapeake. He even has experience with electrical regulation, an issue that strikes deep to the heart of many in Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Robert "Bobby" Scott - The true dark horse on this list, Bobby Scott was my Representative in Congress when I lived in Richmond. Congressman Scott is a graduate of Harvard University, and the first African-American to represent Virginia in Cogress since Reconstruction. He has fantastic progressive credentials, having opposed the FISA bill and fought for SCHIP, and a wealth of legislative and campaign experience. In an open seat race, Congressman Scott's intelligence and accomplishments would make the case for a more progressive Virginia.

Any and all of these candidates would serve Virginia well in the Senate, the next fourteen months are going to be a lot of fun.

Comments

After Mark Warner (Chris Guy - 9/2/2007 7:20:19 PM)

I think Creigh Deeds is our best statewide candidate. I don't look forward to him and Brian Moran running against each other in the '09 Governor's race.

I wish Bobby Scott would run, but people say he just has no interest. His House seat would be easy to retain as well. Congressman McEachin has a nice ring to it.

If Warner Doesn't Run, Who Will? (soccerdem - 9/2/2007 7:41:44 PM)

Of the above mentioned possibilities, I like best Moran and Bobby Scott. Moran's remarks on TV this a.m. were compelling and he's no shrinking violet, nor does he seem a nasty, bad boy.

Regarding Bobby Scott, I'd love to see him win, after being considered a dark horse. Would the question be, as Obama critics wonder, "Is he dark enough?" Joking aside, I think Scott sounds great, would be terrific on the stump (as he has been), and would make a fine senator. He, unlike the inarticulate Decider, shows full well the advantages of a Harvard education.

As for Deeds knowing how to win in regions other than NOVA, I didn't see evidence of thet in Spotsylvania, where his campaign seemed totally elusive; at the polls seemingly nothing was done to bring him to the attention of voters. Certainly, there was some disconnect there.

And as for Don Beyer, I don't know whether he could do any better in regions outside NOVA than he did before.

In summary, I'd rather go with Scott, with Moran a second choice, but close. If winning was more important than my core values, I'd pick Moran, but there is the matter of past very unfavorable publicity he'd need to overcome.

If Warner Doesn't Run, Who Will? (soccerdem - 9/2/2007 7:49:12 PM)

Of the above mentioned possibilities, I like best Moran and Bobby Scott. Moran's remarks on the situation in Iraq, delivered on TV this a.m., were compelling. And he's no shrinking violet, nor does he seem a "nasty, bad boy." He comes acroos well.

Regarding Bobby Scott, I'd love to see him win, after being considered a dark horse. Would the question be, as Obama critics wonder, "Is he dark horse enough?" Joking aside, I think Scott sounds great, would be terrific on the stump (as he has been), and would make a fine senator. He, unlike the inarticulate Decider, shows full well the advantages of a Harvard education.

As for Deeds knowing how to win in regions other than NOVA, I didn't see evidence of that in Spotsylvania, where his campaign seemed totally elusive; at the polls seemingly nothing was done to bring him to the attention of voters. Certainly, there was some disconnect there.

And as for Don Beyer, I don't know whether he could do any better in regions outside NOVA than he did before.

Ten years ago (DanG - 9/3/2007 9:20:01 AM)

He won ten years ago. And he was beaten by a simple phrase: No Car Tax. He lost to Gilmore once. He may be the only candidate we could come up with who could actually lose to Gilmore AGAIN.

Plus, I'm still not completely over the things he said about Webb (among other things).

Ten Years Blue (Evan M - 9/3/2007 10:00:04 AM)

Ten years ago, Virginia was a lot more Red than it is today. The changes in Virginia only serve to help Don, not hurt his candidacy.

I think we should have a good Democratic primary, which can only help the candidates with name recognition and free press. If the Republicans hold a convention, and we hold a primary, we have the openness and democracy issues on our side in the General.

At the end of the day, we're in a great position, and I'm looking forward to the campaign.

I have this conversation with 3 of the 5 (teacherken - 9/2/2007 8:57:12 PM)

and think I can speak about the other two, with whom I will deal first.

Bobby Scott has an absolutely safe House seat, and he is moving up in seniority. He sits on both Judiciary and Education, and I see little evidence that his ego is such that he would risk that seat for a long-shot at the Senate.

Jim Moran will NOT run for the Senate. He knows he cannot win a statewide race.

I raised precisely the scenario of John Warner stepping down with both Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds. Brian told me that he does not want to run at the same time as his brother, and was firm on that, even though I have pointed him at the Salazars (CO) and Levins (MI). Creigh said that it would be interesting but that his heart has always been to serve in Virginia.

Before Jim Webb got in the race, many of us from the Dean campaign tried to talk Don into the '06 Senate race - at that point he made clear that his priority was Mark Warner's presidential run. In the current situation I think he might consider it, if Mark does not, will give him strong support, and help ensure an open field - no primary contest. Consider, but not necessarily do.

This list leaves out one other serious possibility, whom no one seems to include, and that would be Leslie Byrne. If she decides not to run for Davis' seat, she might well consider this race as well as another race for Richmond.

A thought on Leslie (Evan M - 9/2/2007 9:51:12 PM)

I thought about including Leslie in my list, though she seems to have a star-crossed history: Beaten by the Republicans twice and redistricted out of a State Senate seat.

I certainly think she'd be a fine candidate, I just didn't put her in my top five. A state-wide victory under her belt would have bumped her into the top-five, but she didn't have one.

Thanks for the info on Bobby Scott. Here's hoping for Speaker Scott someday!

Definitely Close (Evan M - 9/2/2007 10:20:23 PM)

Oh, that race and Creigh's were ridiculously close. One additional difference between Creigh and Lesliey is what they did after the campaign. Creigh sustained and even enhanced the state-wide, grass-roots network created during his campaign for AG. I haven't seen something similar from Leslie, but I may have just missed it.

Elaboration (Joby - 9/3/2007 8:17:52 PM)

What do I like about Don Beyer?

1. He's a real progressive,
2. He's has a strong sense of compassion,
3. He's articulate,
4. He know what he believes,
5. He's loyal, and
6. He's a true statesman!

Do I think he can win?
ABSOLUTELY!

Rebuttal (DanG - 9/5/2007 11:29:38 AM)

1. You got me there.
2. Compassion? Ha! I could tell you some pretty cut-throat stories!
3. So articulate that he got beat by three words.
4. So does George Bush, doesn't make it right.
5. If by loyalty you mean cronyism, then yeah, you're right.
6. Fluff. You clearly ran out of responses for this one. Anybody who likes Virginia and is in politics can claim to be a statesman.

The only reason people are backing Beyer is because our bench is pretty shallow as far as statewide leadership goes. The fact that we're trying to scrape up Beyer from the bottom of the bucket it just really sad, and show that while we're doing great around the state in small, individual races, we're really lacking in statewide candidates. We've got Mark, Creigh, and Brian. That's not very deep.

We've more than three (Evan M - 9/5/2007 5:19:41 PM)

There was another diary where we discussed our bench, and it's deeper than you might think, if you look beyond "fresh and new."

The statewide Dem bench, as it stands today, would have to include (in no particular order):

Tim Kaine
Creigh Deeds
Brian Moran
Jim Moran
Mark Warner
Don Beyer
Leslie Byrne
Bobby Scott
Rick Boucher

and that's the list of "recent" and therefore "fresh and new" statewide bench candidates.

But the bench is a LOT deeper than that and has to include:

Doug Wilder
Mary Sue Terry
Gerry Connoly (sp?)
Ross Kearney II (Mayor of Hampton)
Joe Frank (Mayor of Newport News since 1996!)
Chap Petersen

Just to name fifteen.

Rebuttal...part 2 (DanG - 9/5/2007 8:24:47 PM)

1. Tim Kaine ain't running for the seat. We all know this. He may be done after his governor's term.
2. Jim Moran can't win outside NoVA. I know it's hard for you Yankees (and I mean that with all due respect :) ) to believe, but outside of NoVA, many of us consider him a crook. Trust me, he ain't going anywhere outside the 8th, and he knows it.
3. Mark Warner... no problems there.
4. Don Beyer: reference Rebuttal part 1
5. I say nothing bad about Leslie until I know Ben can't strangle me in my sleep. Maybe in a few years, with some more demographic shifts, but until then she should probably stick to NoVA.
6. Scott has never shown any interest
7. Sad to say, Boucher has shown no statewide interests either
8. Doug Wilder is an Independent. He has said he will not run as a Democrat again.
9. Mary Sue Terry ran such a horrible campaign she created the myth of the Mighty, Indestructable George Allen. As my girlfriend says, she should not be allowed to run again.
10. Gerry makes me vomit
11 and 12. I'd prefer somebody like Paul Fraim of Norfolk to Kearney or Frank
13. Chap is a fantastic candidate, but he's not even in the State Senate yet! Give the guy some time, will ya? He's young, don't worry. He'll be around for a while.