RK ARCHIVE - Gilmore vs. Davis: "It'll be a bloodbath."

*A retirement by John Warner could lead to a 2008 Democratic "sweep" in Virginia

*A race between Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore will pit "two wings of the Virginia Republican Party" against each other. Given the ideological differences and the personal animosities between Davis and Gilmore, Republican strategist Craig Shirley concludes that "It'll be a bloodbath."

*Shirley adds that "I don't think Virginia is the red state it used to be" and that in a presidential year, Republicans have "got to be able to win some percentage of the vote in Northern Virginia to carry the state."

*"Pragmatic Republicans might choose Davis, thinking him stronger in a general election, while conservatives would be more comfortable with Gilmore."

*Meanwhile, according to Cook Political Report senior editor Jennifer Duffy, Mark Warner's "head and his heart are having an argument."

Anyway, it's an interesting article, check out the whole thing and feel free to discuss the 2008 U.S. Senate possibilities.

Comments

Mark Warner would be an awesome VP candidate, (summercat - 8/29/2007 2:25:59 PM)

if one has any faith that any of the current Dems can win the GE. I don't. If not VP, then Governor again in the near future. I don't know that the senate would suit his style--but more power to him if he chooses to go that way.

You gotta play the odds (David Campbell - 8/29/2007 2:39:53 PM)

The vice presidency isn't worth a "bucket of warm spit" -- Vice President John Nance Garner (1932-1940). Warner shouldn't sit like a wallflower hoping someone asks him to dance.

The Governor of Virginia is one term and out on the street again.

If Sen. John Warner retires (as expected) Mark Warner whould be a shoo-in, particularly after a bloodbath between Gilmore and Davis (and maybe Allen). He could stay in the Senate until retirement, gaining power and influence with seniority. Virginia would be solid blue, and Democrats would widen their majority in the Senate.

I agree with David's analysis (True Blue - 8/29/2007 3:17:06 PM)

Mark Warner could be a six termer if he wanted to be. I think he'd make a great Senator as well, so I encourage him to run. Webb and Mark Warner would be an impressive Senate team, representing Virginia's military focus and growing business sphere.

If Democrats Want to Grow the Party (JMU Duke - 8/29/2007 4:05:32 PM)

This is a good way. Two brilliant, more moderate Democratic Senators on the ballot a few terms in a row would be a great way to allow us to run more and more candidates under our popular standardbearers. I'm looking forward to voting for Governor Warner for any office, but more and more I see the Senate as the right place for him.

I agree with all three of you (mikeporter - 8/29/2007 5:17:36 PM)

Mark Warner for U.S. Senate 2008 is the best idea. I'm hoping over the next few months two things happen:
1. J. Warner announces he is retiring.
2. M. Warner throws his hat in the ring.

I'm not convinced that Gilmore can raise the money (True Blue - 8/29/2007 3:19:24 PM)

Davis has $1,000,000+ while Gilmore actually still owes money on his presidential run. It's not an insurmountable obstacle by any means, but Gilmore is going to have show he can raise the money if he's to be a credible candidate in a Republican primary against Davis.

Interesting Republican dilemma, eh? (Teddy - 8/29/2007 3:32:22 PM)

After the fine results Davis achieved strongarming Speaker Howell into the transportation solution of non-tax taxes, how much credibility does Tommy have downstate, even compared to Jimmy? Maybe it will depend on how well his spouse does in her upcoming election. Darn! the timing is terrible: Warner makes it official in September, but the election is not until November. Poor Tom. My money is on his running for the US Senate, regardless. There is no substitute for ego. Or a million dollars.