Over budget and behind schedule, rail to Dulles International Airport is in trouble.Planned for more than 40 years, the 23-mile Metro extension from Falls Church to Loudoun County is among the region's highest transportation priorities...Yet the most critical component to the project's success -- nearly $1 billion in federal funding -- remains in doubt. And so does the fate of the rail line itself.
Of course, politics being what it is, the blame game has already begun. Thus, Tom Davis says "The only one who has delayed this project is the governor." Other people "place the blame for cost escalation squarely at the feet of the project's no-bid contract." Virginia's Secretary of Transportation, Pierce Homer, says that "most of the delays under Virginia's watch resulted from allowing interest groups to have a say." Some blame tunnel advocates. Gerry Connolly says "We had an obligation to look thoroughly at the tunnel option." And on and on it goes. Where it stops is the question. At this point, nobody knows.
The problem with the Dulles Rail project is that the special interests have been driving the process the whole time. Frank Wolf, in particular has a close relationship with Bechtel and Washington Group International(they've donated to his campaign). how that fact goes unreported, is beyond me.
Don't get me wrong, I like trains. I like the idea of commuter trains a lot. However, I don't believe that a line run out to Dulles and beyond is going to significantly improve the traffic problems we face today. Just look at I66 outside the beltway during rush hour - has the Orange line fixed the gridlock there? Hardly. Yes, I'll be the first to admit that things would be worse without the Orange line, but I think people who believe a Dulles line would magically solve the Fairfax/Loudoun traffic problems are being way too optimistic.
Plus, what about real world commuter patterns? Are that many people commuting from DC to Tysons? Or the reverse? Yes, this line would pick up people along the dulles/greenway corridor who commute to DC and would certainly take some cars off the road.
Again, I'm not against the idea of Rail To Dulles, I just don't believe that this project is the make-or-break deal for the NOVA area. Or that it is THE solution that will save us from gridlock and a horrible transportation situation.
So, with that in mind, if this would be a low cost project that could be done quickly I'd be all for it. Or, if it would beyond any doubt provide huge benefits I'd be all for it. But it's not either. Every time someone does an analysis the cost and time increase and I have yet to see a report/projection that says this project would absolutely save NOVA (hell, even just Tysons) from gridlock.
I don't expect that anything will 'fix' the problems completely. The fundamental problems have to do with people living too far from their places of work. Cheap gas, freeways, and zoning laws that segregate residential and commercial use of land have all combined to get us to a point where people think they need to commute so far. Fixing this problem will take decades however, and so far I haven't seen any indication that people even see this as a problem that needs to be fixed. Everyone wants more roads/transit/etc, to make their long commutes more bearable. Still, you will never completely eliminate the need for transit.
One of the problems with Tysons is that it is mainly commercial, and there isn't much residential. This turns it into a commuter nightmare with people trying to get in and out. I am one of the few that actually lives in Tysons - getting *out* of Tysons in the morning is generally easy - all the traffic is going the other way. But if you forget something at home, you are screwed :-(.
Obviously Metro to Dulles won't do much to help with the I-66 or I-95 corridors. No one single project is going to help with all 3 or any of the other problem areas.
Two words: smart growth.
Three more words: mixed use development.
More important than Metro to Dulles for Tysons to become a livable, walkable, healthy community would be the aforementioned. And there's no sense doing Metro to Dulles if it's going to be a no-bid boondoggle for Bechtel and if it's not going to be done right.
They certainly talked a good talk about smart growth - I think the point of the meeting was to see whether the general public seemed to get it or not.
What makes it easier is that we have the Ballston corridor right nearby, and it is easy for people to see how smart growth is supposed to work. Thus it isn't quite as hard of a sell as it would have been were there no good examples in the area.
The problem is how do you retrofit it into an area that has previously allowed laissez-faire development. It sounds like the major incentive that the county can offer is even higher development density provided that the development follows a smart-growth design.
Regarding transit in Tysons, there are lots of mixed feelings for people who live here. Virtually everyone wants Metro through Tysons - that part isn't controversial. Some folks are afraid that if the overhead rail thing goes down in flames that we will get nothing except more roads or something useless like a Metro that bypasses Tysons entirely. Or BRT - I know some people here like the idea, but to me it is designed to fail - do something cheap that doesn't really work, and then the road builders will come out and say "See, I told you so".
There are tons of people traveling to and through Tysons - but how many are coming from non-mass transit areas and/or going to non-mass transit areas? A good mass transit system will only work if the points of origin and destination are both served by the mass transit - and I think you'll find the model for the vast majority of Tysons commuters is that they live in suburban areas not well served (or well used) by mass transit. The train would likely clean up a portion of the pass through traffic - but how much is the critical question in terms of improving the Tysons corridor traffic situation.
What it really comes down to is a good cost/benefit analysis based on current (and expected to escalate) costs and hard core benefit analysis. The FTA report that came out just last month even indicated that they used old software/analysis to determine that the project would be a benefit.
It seems that everyone was allowed to get in their two cents worth into this essential transportation project. I'm not only talking about the opponents of the rail to Dulles, which included the folks who support Bus Rapid Transit. I also blame the local politicians who allowed the Johnny-come-lately "tunnel through Tysons" folks to jam up and delay the entire project.
At a time when I thought the local and state bureaucrats and elected officials had come together and supported an above ground system through Tysons, all of a sudden the tunnelers started rabble rousing. They should have been ignored instead of listened to. If I had been a dictator and running the show, I certainly would have suppressed their ridiculous and costly proposals. [I suspect that the tunnel supporters were really the original opponents of rail operating incognito.]
Let me note a very important observation that a lot of folks including me hold to be a virtual truth: the rail system project to Dulles Airport, with all the incidental business services, construction, and jobs that come with it, could mean that Northern Virginia will be recession proof for the next twenty or thirty years.
Not only will Northern Virginia benefit from a damn good rail related economy, but the rest of the state will also benefit. I would suspect that substantial and sustained revenues will flow to the state treasury during the entire period. We're talking about prosperity for all Virginians.
To be serious, I place the blame for this fiasco on Tim Kaine. The Governor should have exercised more direct control and management. If the rail to Dulles fails, he will be chief recipient of criticism.
But, it may be that the Slow Growth folks that Kaine has inside his administration might have induced the Governor to act indifferently to the project. After all, Slow Growth is all about reducing additional residential development that would inevitably go along with a rail system to Loudoun County.
bechtel, coupled with Wolf and Davis, basically blackmailed Gov. Kaine into stopping the debate over the tunnel by threatening the loss of federal funds, something that now appears to have been a mistake on their part.
The "tunnel through Tysons" folks only organized and created the debate a year later becuase they were being bullied by the special interests.
The only reason that the Tysons Tunnel idea was killed is that Frank Wolf and Tom Davis told Gov Kaine that any delay in the project would jeopardize federal finds. More than a year later, and after a long debate, the federal funding finally appears to be in jeopardy (maybe). But all of that could have been avoided had Davis and Wolf not pushed to end the public debate.
Davis and Wolf are responsible for this, more leadership was required from them, and as usual their failure to lead and loyalty to special interests have cost taxpayers.
And where the hell is Frank Wolf on this? The whole project is in jeopardy and the man hasn't uttered a word. He's out to lunch.
Oh, and in addition to saving the entire Virginia economy for the next 30 years you forgot to mention that the Metro to Dulles project would solve world hunger and bring about everlasting world peace.
Get real.
I challenge anyone to say this is money well spent
Once again the enviromental impact study says there will be NO EFFECT on traffic relief for the region